DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a trough over eastern Alaska and a blocking ridge over northern Canada, centered over north-central Canada extending into Greenland. This is a cool pattern for western Canada, mild central, warm in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a ridge in the western Gulf of Alaska. A trough in the eastern Gulf of Alaska extending into the coast of the northwest U.S. A trough over south-central Canada and the north-central U.S. A trough over southeast Canada and the northwest atlantic and a weak trough over the Southeast U.S. Centers of subtropical high pressure are located over west Texas and in the southwest atlantic.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 5 days, fair agreement days 6-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet will feature a weak ridge over eastern Alaska. A strong ridge over western Canada and a trough over north-central and eastern Canada extending across Greenland. This will be a warm/hot pattern for western Canada, variable central and east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the western Gulf of Alaska. A ridge in the eastern Gulf of Alaska. A weak trough over the interior western U.S. A ridge over the northern Plains and a weak trough over the eastern U.S. and western atlantic. The position of the trough in the eastern U.S. will be far enough to the east to limit rainfall in the Midwest but enough rain is expected to occur to maintain favorable growing conditions. This will be a warm pattern with little cold air movement out of Canada under this configuration.

This pattern will feature near to above normal temperatures in the Midwest. Rainfal near to below normal. The northern plains will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Rainfall near to below normal during the next 5 days, mostly below normal days 6-10. The southern plains will see mostly above normal temperatures during the the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Rainfall near to below normal. The Delta states will see above normal temperatures during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Rainfall mostly below normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...117 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW TUE...11 AT WEST YELLOWSTONE GATEWAY MT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY...JACKSONVILLE FL 2.22 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement early in this period, fair agreement later in the period. I favor a little more of today's US model.

The south-central US ridge is expected to shift a little east of the Miss river during the next 3-5 days. As we begin the 6-10 day period the ridge will begin to weaken again as a weak surface high and upper level trough drops southward out of Canada into the Midwest region. A secondary trough and weak surface high moves into the Midwest from the north during the second part of the period, further weakening the ridge in the area. The weak trough in the western US is over the northwest US early in the 6-10 day period. This trough weakens a little but remains in the area west of the Rockies late in the period. The eastern Pacific ridge pushes into southwest Canada to the north of the west US trough early in the period. This ridge is in southwest and south-central Canada most of the period but does weaken towards the end.

The mean map covering the 8 to 10 day period from today's US model features a ridge over southwest and into south-central Canada with a trough underneath this ridge over the western US. Downstream from this ridge over trough pattern we see a deepening trough over eastern Canada and the eastern US. The south-central US ridge is suggested on this map but looks much weaker than it has been. Easterly flow suggesting possible tropical activity is indicated in the central and west Gulf of Mexico and south Texas. This implies enhanced rain chances for southeast and south Texas but northward movement is less likely.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): A turn to hot temperatures in the Midwest growing belt later this week and during the coming weekend is not overly concerning, unless it lasts longer than is currently expected. Recent rainfall has provided for favorable soil moisture levels in many areas while some are still a bit on the dry side.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Episodes of above to much above normal temperatures and limited rainfall will decrease soil moisture and increase stress on developing corn and soybeans. Mostly favorable weather for maturing winter wheat and the early harvest.

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT, CORN, SOYBEANS): Generally favorable conditions for development of spring wheat, corn and soybeans throughout the northern plains.

UKRAINE/SOUTH RUSSIA (WHEAT, CORN, SUNFLOWER): Thunderstorms have developed in a parts of northeast and southwest Ukraine during the past 24 hours. This will help ease dryness concerns for some areas but more widespread and frequent shower activity is needed to reverse the recent drying trend.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): Persistent hot/dry weather could lead to major losses to dryland cotton.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT, CANOLA): Showers during the next few days will favor emerging and developing crops in the region. A turn to drier, much warmer weather is possible during the 6-10 day period. This will begin to deplete available soil moisture and will bear watching.

NORTHEAST CHINA (CORN AND SOYBEANS): Scattered thunderstorms occurred yesterday through the southern part of this region. The area will see occasional showers and thundershowers during the coming days, helping to ease dryness concerns for this crop area.

NORTH CHINA PLAINS (CORN, SOYBEAN, COTTON, GROUNDNUTS): Mainly dry during the past 24 hours. Hot temperatures. Thunderstorms may settle south into the northeast part of this area today. Temperatures cool some during the next few days but likely turn hot again by the weekend. Rain is needed and cooler temperatures preferred for emerging and developing spring planted crops.

INDIAN MONSOON: The leading edge of the Monsoon is over the northern part of south Indian and in northeast India today, normal to a few days delayed for this date. It appears that the Monsoon may be in a weakening phase at this time. This likely mean that further progress to the north and northwest may slow this week. The rains will back away from key growing areas for cotton, soybeans, groundnuts, sugarcane and sorghum in the west-central India region.

Temperatures likely turn hotter as shower activity diminishes.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Dry or with only isolated light showers during the past 24 hours.

Temperatures averaged near normal north, above normal south.

East: Light to moderate showers and thundershowers with isolated heavier in southeast Illinois, southwest Indiana, southwest and north Ohio during the past

24 hours. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged near normal north and east, above normal southwest.

Forecast...

West: Dry today. A few thunderstorms tonight, mainly west Iowa or southeast Nebraska. Light showers with locally heavier Thursday, favoring east and north areas. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near normal today, above normal Thursday, well above normal Friday. Highs Friday likely reach the low to middle 90s F.

Mostly dry Saturday. Dry or with only a few scattered showers favoring north and west areas during Sunday. Scattered light to locally moderate showers during Monday. Temperatures average well above normal Saturday and Sunday, near to above normal Monday. Highs low to middle 90s Saturday and Sunday, upper 70s to low 90s Monday.

East: Dry or with only a few light showers in southeast areas today. Mostly dry Thursday. Dry or with only light showers in northwest areas Thursday night, northeast locations Friday. Temperatures average near to above normal today and Thursday, above normal Friday. Highs Friday ranging from the 80s to low 90s, warmest western Illinois.

Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Scattered light to locally moderate showers, favoring northern and eastern areas, during Monday. Temperatures average above to well above normal. Highs low to middle 90s west, upper 80s to low 90s east.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal early in the period, near to above normal later in the period. Rainfall near to below normal.

Northern Plains (Spring Wheat, Corn, Soybeans, livestock)

Summary: Dry or with only very light showers in northeast areas during the past

24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal yesterday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Light to moderate showers with locally heavier favoring central and east North Dakota and northern Minnesota Thursday or Thursday night. Light showers with locally heavier during Friday. Temperatures average above normal today, near normal west and above normal east tomorrow, below normal west and above normal east Friday.

Scattered showers and thundershowers Saturday and Sunday. Rainfall moderate to locally heavy. Dry or with only lingering light showers Monday, favoring south and west areas. Temperatures average below normal Saturday and Sunday, near normal Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to well above normal during this period. Rainfall near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Light to moderate thundershowers with isolated heavier occurred overnight in west Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Light showers were also reported in northeast and central Oklahoma during the past 24 hours. Dry or with only isolated showers otherwise yesterday or last night. Temperatures averaged near to above normal north, above to well above normal south.

Forecast: Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier favoring western and northern areas today or tonight. Mostly dry tomorrow and Friday.

Temperatures near to above normal today, above to well above normal Thursday and Friday. Highs Thursday and Friday likely average 95 to 102F, possibly a little hotter.

Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Scattered showers and thundershowers Monday or Monday night, favoring west, north and southeast areas. Temperatures above to well above normal Saturday and Sunday, somewhat cooler Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal.

Rainfall near to below normal, although there will most likely be at least some thunderstorm activity in the region at times.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

Joel Burgio