DTN Market Impact Weather

Important Rain Chance

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- A significant rainfall prospect for the Midwest, and confirmation of drier conditions in the Black Sea region, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Wednesday.

MIDWEST STAYS FAVORABLE

The DTN ag weather forecast continues to call for an important round of rainfall to form in the Midwest during the upcoming weekend. Total rain amounts are expected to be moderate to locally heavy. Coverage and amounts will be heaviest in the northern Midwest; however, western and central sectors also have moderate to locally heavy totals indicated. The rain will be key to maintaining a robust early season crop condition, due to above- to much-above-normal temperatures forcing crops to tap into soil moisture reserves at an early point in the season.

SOUTHERN PLAINS VARIETY

In the Southern Plains, frequent showers and a more-variable temperature pattern will favor filling winter wheat and developing row crops in southern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Farther south, hotter weather and less rainfall maintain stress on late-filling wheat and developing summer crops from southeast Colorado and southern Kansas southward.

STILL HOT FOR WEST TEXAS

West Texas cotton areas have no significant rainfall indicated during the next seven days, although a few light showers may occur at times. High temperatures will range mostly 98 to 102 Fahrenheit through Friday, and not quite as hot Saturday through Tuesday.

FAVORABLE NORTHERN PLAINS PATTERN

The Northern Plains region continues with a favorable combination of mild weather and periodic showers for crops and pastures.

MAINLY DRY IN DELTA

In the Delta, conditions are mostly favorable conditions for corn, soybeans and cotton at this time. Heat and dryness from the southwestern Plains bears watching for possible stress to crops.

IMPROVING PRAIRIES MOISTURE

We continue to see improving soil moisture for developing crops in the Canadian Prairies, especially in eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba after moderate to heavy showers and thundershowers late last week. This may mean delays to fieldwork, but early and recently planted crops will benefit. A possible exception is in southern Alberta where dryness may still be of some concern.

BLACK SEA DRYNESS

Dryness is becoming of increasing concern in the Black Sea region of Ukraine, central Russia, and southern Russia for reproductive to filling winter wheat and early developing corn and sunflower. Rainfall has averaged below 50% of normal during the past 60 days for a portion of this area. Rainfall chances during the next week to 10 days remain fairly limited with episodes of warm weather as well, although nothing that looks very hot at this time.

SHOWERS FOR WESTERN AUSTRALIA

Showers have formed in Western Australia wheat areas, with mostly light to locally moderate totals expected. Rain is needed to support germination and early growth of wheat in this area.

CHINA HEAT

Northeast China had a few thundershowers in extreme north areas, dry elsewhere in this region Tuesday. Meanwhile, heat and dryness prevailed throughout the North China Plain, with highs ranging from 97 to 102 F. The forecast suggests some shower threats during the next week, but likely averaging near to below normal. Episodes of hot weather centering on the North China Plain are also in store, and occasionally extending into northeast China. This overall trend is bringing some increased concern for the corn and soybean crops in China.

NORTHWARD MONSOON PROGRESS

The leading edge of the India monsoon continues to move northward over southern India and westward over northeast India and Bangladesh. It now appears close to normal in the south and a few days behind normal in the northeast. Increasing rain activity will encourage more widespread planting of the Kharif (summer) crops in India at this time.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow Bryce Anderson on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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