Winter Wheat Checkup

MINNEAPOLIS, Minn. (DTN) -- Scouts on the 2018 Wheat Quality Council Hard Winter Wheat Tour are likely to see a very different crop than they found last year.

Scouts will wade into some of the worst winter wheat conditions as they begin to pull samples this week. The tour kicks off on Tuesday, May 1, and will end on Thursday, May 3. DTN will be along -- pulling samples and reporting findings.

The western third of Kansas received 7-22 inches of snow and 50-mile-per-hour wind gusts just days prior to last year's tour.

Dave Green, executive vice president of the Wheat Quality Council, said the snow was challenging in 2017, but scouts were still able to inspect the fields and measure the plants in spite of the snow.

"This year we have a large group of bakers, with millers, media and trading company representatives added to the mix," said Green. There will be 24 cars and 96 participants combing through Kansas wheat country.

The tour starts and ends in Manhattan, Kansas, with overnight stops in Colby and Wichita. In addition to covering Kansas, representatives come to report on conditions in Nebraska, Colorado and Oklahoma.

"We used yield formulas provided by USDA NASS and always have some expertise in each car to train the new attendees," Green said. "Every car gives a detailed report each evening on their findings compared to the previous year's results in each spot inspected."

Green said that this tour is the industry's first look at the crop. "We know that between now and harvest, yields can change, but the tour is a good starting point. It gives us the first snapshot of the 2018 crop."

The tour's 2017 three-day average over the fields that were calculated was 46.1 bushels per acre. Here is a link to all the results posted from the 2017 tour: http://www.wheatqualitycouncil.org

TOUGH CONDITIONS AND MARKET

"It is unfortunate, but this year's Hard Winter Wheat Tour across Kansas will literally be surveying what is currently the world's worst region of winter wheat crop conditions," said DTN Analyst Todd Hultman.

"Monday's Crop Progress report from USDA said 49% of the winter wheat in Kansas was either rated poor or very poor, the result of almost no significant precipitation since October. In addition, 11% of Kansas wheat was rated in good condition and only 1% was rated excellent, likely owned by a lucky producer on the more eastern side of the state."

Nick Vos, who lives in Stevens County, Kansas, and farms in Texas County, Oklahoma, is sadly not that "lucky producer." Vos sent DTN a dryland winter wheat picture that had only 0.7 inch of rain since planting.

"Because of drought in the southwestern U.S. Plains in early 2018, we have seen some early price appreciation," Hultman said. "DTN's national index of cash HRW wheat prices closed at $4.45 Monday, April 23, up $1.31 from last year's $3.14. Fundamentally, HRW wheat prices still face several bearish challenges in 2018 as old-crop wheat supplies remain plentiful in the U.S. and around the world."

"So far, early reports from the world's other wheat regions are favorable, showing no sign yet of the kind of problems that will be needed to lift wheat prices higher. The U.S. winter wheat crop provided less than 5% of world wheat production in 2017, and with early crop ratings looking much worse than a year ago, this year's production is likely to be an even smaller share of the world's total," Hultman concluded.

The final 2018 HRW wheat protein average and quality will be key to prices. The average protein for the 2017 crop was 11.4% and was similar to 2016 at 11.5%, but significantly lower than the five-year average of 12.6%.

It's no secret that 12% protein is preferred by flour mills. Buyers contacted by DTN said that while flour mills make a 13% protein flour, the most common is a mid-mix 12% protein flour -- 1% of the wheat protein is lost in the flour-making process.

The higher the protein content, the harder and stronger the flour and the more it will produce crusty or chewy breads. The lower the protein, the softer the flour, which is better for cakes, cookies and pie crusts.

"The increased protein binds to the flour to entrap carbon dioxide released by the yeast fermentation process, resulting in a stronger rise," noted the buyer.

Time will tell as to how the protein ends up, as several major factors influence the protein content in wheat. Those factors include the timing and amount of growing season precipitation, the temperature and heat (degree days) during the growing season, soil nitrogen reserve levels and applied nitrogen fertilizer pre-plant, at seeding and in-crop applications.

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Editor's note: DTN will be tweeting and also posting nightly summaries of the winter wheat tour. Readers can follow Mary Kennedy on Twitter at @MaryCKenn and also @dtnpf #wheattour18.

Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

(PS/SK/AG)

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