DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn closed down 3 cents in the May contract and was down 3 cents in the December. Soybeans closed down 24 3/4 cents in the May and down 15 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 10 cents in the May Chicago, down 12 3/4 cents in the May Kansas City, and down 7 1/4 cents in the May Minneapolis.

The March U.S. dollar index is down 0.07 at 90.09. April gold is up $1.60 at $1,323.30 while May silver is up $0.11 and May copper is up $0.0625. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 373 points at 25,268. April crude oil is up $1.73 at $61.85. April heating oil is up $0.0252, April RBOB gasoline is up $0.0341, and April natural gas is down $0.026.

For the week:

May corn closed up 5 1/4 cents and December was up 3 cents. May soybeans were down 31 3/4 cents while the November was down 7 1/4 cents. May Chicago wheat was down 10 3/4 cents, May Kansas City wheat was down 13 1/4 cents, and May Minneapolis wheat was down 2 3/4 cents.

Corn:

May corn closed down 3 cents at $3.90 1/2 Monday, dragged lower by double-digit declines in soybeans and winter wheat. May corn was still up 5 1/4 cents on the week, thanks to the ongoing drought in Argentina, and USDA's aggressive boost in corn's export estimate on Thursday. The increased exports have yet to be proven, but early Friday, USDA helped its case with news that 10.2 million bushels (mb) of U.S. corn were sold to unknown destinations for 2017-18. The main bearish concern for corn at this time is the large amount stored in the U.S., and the uncertainty of what USDA's Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports will say on March 29. On the bullish side, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reduced its estimate of Argentina's corn crop from 37.0 to 34.0 million metric tons (mmt) (1.3 billion bushels) on Thursday and the price trend remains up in May corn. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.57 Thursday, priced 37 cents below the May contract and within a cent of its July high. There was one delivery intention for March corn early Friday as open interest stood at 4,064 contracts -- a fairly high amount with expiration coming Wednesday. In outside markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 373 points after the U.S. Labor Department said nonfarm payrolls increased 313,000 in February, much more than expected. The U.S. unemployment rate stayed at 4.1%, reported RTTNews.com. April crude oil is up $1.73, encouraged by news of increased economic growth.

Soybeans:

May soybeans fell 24 3/4 cents Friday to $10.39 1/4 and was down 31 3/4 cents on the week, pressured by a third day of commercial selling in response to prices that reached a new contract high last Friday. May soybean meal finished down $9.80, posting the largest percentage loss among Friday's grain contracts. Thursday's lower soybean export estimate from USDA also did not help prices even though USDA dropped its estimate of ending world soybean stocks and the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered Argentina's soybean crop estimate from 44.0 mmt to 42.0 mmt (1.5 bb). Earlier Friday, USDA said 7.5 mb (205,000 metric tons) of U.S. soybeans were sold to unknown destinations and another 6.7 mb (183,000 mt) were sold to China, both for 2017-18. The news however, went largely ignored as Friday's low trading volume suggests that commercial selling hit a vacuum of buying interest ahead of the weekend. Fundamentally, USDA's anticipation of a slight world production deficit in 2017-18 is neutral for prices. Technically, the weekly stochastics for spot soybeans and soybean meal are showing bearish changes in momentum that look suspiciously like tops while noncommercial traders are net long. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.85 Thursday, down from its highest price in over a year and priced 79 cents below the May contract. Early Friday, there were no delivery intentions for March contracts of soybeans, 39 for meal, and 18 for bean oil.

Wheat:

May Chicago wheat dropped a dime Friday to $4.89 1/4 while May Kansas City wheat was down 12 3/4 cents, both ending lower on the week. The first question asked is likely to be, "did it rain?" and the short answer is "no," the seven-day forecast remains mostly dry for the central U.S. Plains and the extended forecast has no better chances of relief from the extreme drought conditions in the southwestern U.S. Plains. Thursday's WASDE report was mildly bearish for wheat, but like soybeans, Friday's lower prices occurred with low volume, which suggests a case of buyers' fatigue among traders. After May K.C. wheat reached its highest prices in seven months last week, prices ran out of support ahead of the weekend -- a possible sign of a top. Fundamentally, there is plenty of wheat available around the world while forecasts remain dry for the southwestern U.S. Plains. Technically, the trends in winter wheat are still up, but weekly momentum is close to turning bearish. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.64 Thursday, priced 35 cents below the May contract and down from its highest price in seven months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.87, near its highest price in two and a half years. Early Friday, there were 37 delivery intentions for March K.C. wheat and six for March Minneapolis wheat.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.