DTN Closing Grain Comments

By Darin Newsom
DTN Senior Analyst

General Comments:

March corn gained 1 1/4 cents to $3.56 1/2 and December added 1 cent to $3.89 1/2. March soybeans fell 6 3/4 cents to $9.85 1/2 while November lost 4 1/4 cents to $10.02 3/4. March Chicago wheat closed 6 1/2 cents higher at $4.41, new-crop July Kansas City rallied 8 cents to $4.74 1/2, and March Minneapolis gained 3 1/4 cents to close at $6.13 1/2. The U.S. dollar index was 0.57 lower at 88.89 with March 30-year T-bonds down 16/32. February gold was $10.00 lower at $1,352.90 while March silver was $0.14 lower and February copper lost $0.0190. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained another 120 points to 26,512. March crude oil rallied $0.73 to $66.24. The February distillates (heating oil) contract was $.0246 higher, February RBOB gasoline added $.0309, and February natural gas was $0.091 higher.

For the week:

March corn closed 4 cents higher and December finished 3 3/4 cents higher. March soybeans were 8 1/4 cents higher and November was 6 3/4 cents higher. March Chicago wheat was 18 1/4 cents higher, July Kansas City finished 16 1/2 cents higher, and March Minneapolis wheat was 5 1/4 cents higher.

Corn:

Corn didn't accomplish much over the course of Friday's session, though contracts were able to close near session highs while showing gains for the week. Fundamentally there is little that has changed, with old-crop March-to-May and May-to-July futures spreads still covering more than 70% of calculated full commercial carry. Friday's delayed weekly export shipment numbers for the week ended Thursday, January 18, came in at 23.6 mb, putting marketing year totals at 503 mb. This would project to a total demand estimate of 1.733 bb. USDA announced a sale of 125,000 mt to unknown destinations early in the day, but this didn't influence trade much.

Soybeans:

For the second consecutive day, soybeans saw increased selling late in the session. Friday's activity confirmed Thursday's technical signals, indicating both old-crop March and new-crop November have moved into short-term downtrends on their respective daily charts. Traders will keep an eye on South American weather developments over the weekend, though the same old song and dance over adverse conditions in Argentina seems to be getting old. Friday's weekly export shipment numbers, for the week ended Thursday, January 18, came in at 45.7 mb and put total marketing year shipments at 1.178 bb. This projects to total export demand for the 2017-2018 marketing year of 1.841 bb. Given Friday's bearish close, and this week's technical developments, it would not be surprising to see the market start next Sunday's trade under pressure.

Wheat:

The story of the day in wheat was the strong rally by the new-crop July Kansas City (HRW) contract. After pushing through its previous weekly high of $4.71 1/4 the contract reached a daily peak of $4.76, up 9 1/2 cents for the day. With continued warm, windy, and dry conditions forecast for the U.S. Southern Plains growing area, it would not be surprising to see the contract continue its rally early next week. Chicago also closed higher, with new crop again proving more interesting than old crop. As for the latter, total export shipments remain lackluster at 542 mb, projecting a marketing year total of 874 mb or 100 mb less than the previous marketing year.

Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com

Follow Darin Newsom on Twitter @DarinNewsom

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