DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over Alaska and western Canada and a trough over eastern Canada and Greenland. This is a mild pattern in western Canada, cool/cold central and east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the Rockies and western Plains and a trough over the eastern U.S. and western atlantic.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through the outlook period. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet will feature a weak trough over Alaska and northwest Canada. A weak ridge over north-central and northeast Canada and a weak trough over Greenland. This will be a variable temperature pattern for Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the Gulf of Alaska and a low to moderate amplitude jet with embedded disturbances across the U.S. This will be a limited precipitation pattern for the central U.S. due to the fairly rapid movement of systems. It will be a variable temperature pattern,. Mild out ahead of systems, cooler behind them. However no severe cold is indicated as temperatures moderate in Canada.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation near to above normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to below normal during the next 5 days, below normal days 6-10. The northern plains will see near to above normal temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The Delta states will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to above normal during the next 5 days, below normal days 6-10.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...79 AT THERMAL CA

LOW TUE...34 BELOW ZERO AT HOOVER SD

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...HOUSTON TX 0.35 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook period, although there is a slight difference as it concerns timing of features. The storm moving through the Midwest Sunday into Monday is slower on today's European model. The upper level trough associated with this storm moves over the Midwest region early in the outlook period. It should turn cooler behind this trough but probably not very cold. A secondary trough is shown developing over the plains before moving into the Midwest region later in the period. It will likely warm somewhat ahead of this trough before cooling again behind it.

The mean trough position appears to be over the plains and western Midwest regions during the outlook period. Ridging is less evident but suggested in the Bahamas to the central Atlantic and from southern California and Baja into the Pacific. The polar vortex continues to weaken over north-central and northeast Canada. The models now show above normal heights in the area where the polar vortex has been located during the early winter period. If this were a high latitude type ridge forcing the polar trough south I might be concerned about colder temperatures in the US. However, it appears that this is just a weakening of the polar trough which should be less threatening.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTH PLAINS/WEST MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/HOGS): Snow, ice and rain with increasing winds for the western Midwest region this coming Sunday into Monday. This is likely to produce an area of heavy snow and strong winds impacting transport and increasing stress on livestock. The axis of heavier snow and wind will depend on the track of the low and how quickly the precipitation changes to snow. At this time the highest risk for snow and wind appears to be in the west and north areas...especially the northwest but this may change.

ARGENTINA (CORN,SOYBEAN,SUNFLOWER): Timely and beneficial rains and cooler temperatures over the weekend ease stress to developing corn and soybeans after a period of hot, dry weather last week.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE): Scattered showers mainly occurred in southern and west-central areas during the weekend period. Temperatures turned hotter late in the period. The region should be dry or with only a few thundershowers in southern areas into Friday with above normal temperatures. Increasing stress to developing and early reproductive maize at this time. Scattered to widely scattered thundershowers and not as hot during the weekend and early next week.

BRAZIL, SOUTH (SOYBEANS, CORN): Rain in southern Brazil favors developing soybeans. A trend towards drier weather in central Brazil during the next 5 days will favor maturing soybeans and the early harvest. Favorable soil moisture for developing soybeans in central Brazil.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT, LIVESTOCK): Colder weather early this week does not appear to have been cold enough to harm winter wheat. A rapid warm up during the next day or two. There does not appear additional significant cold outbreaks for the region during the next 7 to 10 days.

EAST MIDWEST (SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT): No significant concerns for the soft red winter wheat crop at this time. However, the widely varying temperature pattern might be somewhat unfavorable in some locations.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged well below normal yesterday.

East: Light snow or snow squalls northeast, a little light precipitation southeast, during the past 24 hours. Dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures well below normal.

Forecast...

West: Mostly dry today through Friday. Temperatures average near normal west and below normal east today, above normal Thursday, well above normal Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday. Snow, ice and rain develops Sunday. Snow lingers in northern and eastern areas early Monday. Precipitation totals average 0.25-1.00 inch during this period, heaviest eastern Iowa. Snowfall is likely to be heaviest over northwest and north areas where it is mostly snow. Strong winds may also develop with this system. The eastern areas will see much of the precipitation occurring as rain before ending as snow. Temperatures average above normal Saturday and Sunday but it should turn colder during Monday.

East: Mostly dry today through Friday. Temperatures average below normal today, near normal west and below normal east Thursday, above normal Friday.

Mostly dry during Saturday. Rain, showers and thundershowers favoring western areas during Sunday. Rain changing to snow northwest and showers and thundershowers east during Monday. Precipitation totals average 0.25-1.00 inch and locally heavier. Heaviest western areas. Strong winds develop during this period. Temperatures average above normal during this period.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal west, above to near normal east. Precipitation near to below normal west, near to above normal east.

Central/Southern Plains (Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below to well below normal yesterday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today through Friday. Temperatures average below normal this morning, near to below normal during this afternoon, above normal Thursday, well above normal Friday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers developing Saturday or Saturday night. Light to locally moderate precipitation may occur in northern areas during Sunday, showers in the east during this time. Mostly dry Monday.

Temperatures average above to well above normal Saturday, somewhat cooler Sunday and Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal.

Precipitation near to below normal.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS AND GRAINS

MGDS, Parana and Rio Grande do Sul...

Scattered to widely scattered thundershowers from Santa Catarina northward to Mato Grosso Do Sul during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to above normal yesterday.

Forecast...

Scattered light to moderate showers and thundershowers with locally heavier today into Thursday. Scattered showers linger in northern areas during Friday.

Temperatures average near to above normal today, near to below normal south and near to above normal north tomorrow and Friday.

Episodes of scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers Saturday through Sunday. The activity may become heavier and with higher coverage in RGDS later in this period. Temperatures average near to above normal north, somewhat more variable south.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, North Buenos Aires

Scattered showers and thundershowers were indicated in southern Cordoba and northern Buenos Aires mostly overnight. Isolated activity otherwise.

Temperatures averaged near to above normal north, near to below nromal central and south.

Forecast...

Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers during today and tonight. Drier tomorrow. Dry or with only isolated light showers Friday.

Temperatures average near to below normal today, warmer tomorrow, hot during Friday.

Mostly dry or with only isolated showers Saturday. Scattered showers and thundershowers during Sunday or Monday. Temperatures average above normal Saturday, cooler Sunday or Monday.

La Pampa, South Buenos Aires

Scattered showers were indicated in the region yesterday and last night.

Rainfall amounts and coverage are uncertain at this hour but it appears to have been mostly light showers. Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

Forecast...

A few light showers with locally heavier today, favoring north and east areas. Mainly dry tomorrow and Friday. Temperatures near to below normal today, warmer Thursday, hot Friday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers developing during Saturday.

Scattered showers and thundershowers Sunday into Monday. Temperatures average above normal Saturday but it should turn cooler Sunday and Monday.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(SK)

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