DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over Alaska and western Canada. A trough over central and eastern Canada and a weak ridge over Greenland. This is a mild pattern in western Canada, cold central, mild in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a ridge over the eastern Gulf of Alaska extending into the western U.S. A trough over the central and eastern U.S. and a ridge in the western atlantic. The center of subtropical high pressure is located over central Mexico.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 10 days. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a strong ridge over Alaska and western Canada. The polar vortex over central and eastern Canada extending southward into central and eastern portions of the U.S. This will be a mild/warm temperature pattern for western Canada, cold central and east. The southern branch of the jet stream will feature a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A ridge along the west coast of the U.S. and the southward extension of the polar vortex over the central and eastern U.S. The mean feature have shifted a little further back to the west today. This means a more variable temperature pattern for the plains and more below normal temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation should be minimal in the central U.S., mostly in the form of Alberta clipper lows diving southward into the trough but containing no gulf moisture.

This pattern will feature near to below normal temperatures in the Midwest during the next 5 days, mostly below normal days 6-10. Precipitation below normal. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The northern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The Delta states will see near to below normal temperatures.Precipitation below normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...88 AT HARLINGEN TX AND EDINBURG TX LOW TUE...9 BELOW ZERO AT STANLEY ID

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...TUPELO 1.71 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook period again today. I am using a blend between the models.

The mean upper level ridge remains over western North America during the outlook period. This is a blocking ridge that prevents air masses from moving inland off the Pacific into western Canada. The surface highs form, instead, over eastern Alaska or northwest Canada before moving southward in the general direction of the Midwest region and then to the eastern US. This allows central and east Canada and the eastern US regions to become increasing colder. The polar vortex ranges from Hudson Bay to the eastern Great Lakes region and the northeast US during the period. The coldest anomalies should occur from the central Midwest eastward, especially from the middle to the end of the 6-10 day period. Areas further west should be warmer, especially over the western and southern plains where readings may average near to above normal during the period. Precipitation chances remain fairly low through much of the US region, except possibly over the Middle Atlantic and the northeast states due to storms off the coast in the Atlantic and in potential lake effect snow in the northeast Midwest as colder air moves over the relatively warm waters of lake Michigan.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

ARGENTINA (CORN,SOYBEAN): Dryness remains of concern for key soybean and corn areas from eastern Cordoba and Santa Fe to northern Buenos Aires due to an extended below normal rainfall period and the prospect that La Nina conditions in the Pacific will lead to below normal rain chances during the growing season. The short range forecast does include a chance for scattered rainfall Friday but prior to and after this period dry weather continues until about next Thursday. Temperatures also look to be somewhat hotter during this period.

Low 90s f are expected beginning Thursday and continuing through next Wednesday. Middle 90s may occur next Monday through Wednesday.

NORTH PLAINS (LIVESTOCK, HOGS): Improving conditions for livestock and transport in the northeast plains region with drier conditions and less wind.

No further threats of stormy weather are indicated during the next 7 days.

MIDWEST (CORN): Colder temperatures and drier conditions should help improve conditions for the final harvest effort in the eastern areas, except some areas may see light snow during the weekend and heavy snow could occur in the normal lake effect areas east of Lake Michigan.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT, LIVESTOCK): Dry weather and recent much above normal temperatures further depletes soil moisture and increases stress on winter wheat with crop ratings falling. A turn to colder weather this week will likely put the crop into dormancy which will be welcome as crop moisture needs will end.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS areas in Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais, Goias and Bahia):

Seasonal, tropical shower activity will favor development of soybeans at this time.

BRAZIL, SOUTH (SOYBEANS, CORN): Episodes of scattered showers and warm temperatures through major soybean and first crop corn areas will favor development of these crops while causing only minor planting delays.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT): Heavy rains hit Victory and southern New South Wales wheat areas late last week and during the weekend. Maturing wheat is likely to be impacted which will lead to quality issues. Harvest progress should come to a halt due to this rain event. There is some risk for losses as well. The region is expected to be drier during the next week or so. This should help improve conditions, gradually, for mature wheat and wheat harvesting.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE,SUGARCANE): Increasing shower and thundershower activity and less hot weather should favor development of earlier planted maize and sugarcane and improve the outlook for the later planted crops as well.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to below normal north, near to above normal south, yesterday.

East: Dry or with only a little light precipitation through southeast areas during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal yesterday morning, below normal north and above normal south during the afternoon.

Forecast...

West: Dry or with only a few scattered snow showers today through Friday, favoring western areas early in the period, northeast locations later.

Temperatures average above normal this morning, near to below normal this afternoon, below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Dry or with only a little light precipitation, favoring eastern areas, Monday. Temperatures average near to above normal Saturday and Sunday, above normal Monday.

East: Mostly dry today and Thursday. Dry or with only light precipitation favoring northeast areas Friday or Friday night. Temperatures average above normal today, below normal tomorrow and Friday.

Chance for light snow east, fair west, Saturday. Mainly dry Sunday. Dry or with only scattered snow showers during Monday. Temperatures average near to below normal Saturday, below normal Sunday, above normal Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal west, below to much below normal central and east, during this period.

Precipitation mostly below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry today through Friday. Temperatures average near to below normal today, below normal Thursday, above normal west and near to above normal east Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday through Monday. Temperatures average above normal during this period, possibly well above normal.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal during this period. Precipitation below normal.

Brazil...Mato Grosso Do Sul, Parana, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande Do Sul (Corn,

Soybeans)

Summary: Light to moderate showers with isolated heavier in southern areas of MGDS and northwest areas of Parana during the past 24 hours. Mainly dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures near to above normal. Highs mostly 86 to 93F yesterday.

Forecast: Light to moderate showers and thundershowers with some heavier in MGDS and Parana today or during Thursday. A few light showers in RGDS during this time. Dry south, a few lingering light showers north, during Friday.

Temperatures average near to above normal today, cooler south and continued warmer north tomorrow and Friday.

Mostly dry or with only isolated light showers Saturday. Dry Sunday and Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, above normal Monday.

Central/South Argentina: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Buenos Aires, La Pampa (Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower)

Summary: Isolated light showers were reported in southwest areas yesterday, dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged near normal. Highs mostly 81-85F yesterday.

Forecast: A few light to locally moderate showers may occur in southern and eastern Buenos Aires today or during tonight. Dry or with only isolated light showers, favoring south and west areas, during Thursday. Scattered to widely scattered light to moderate showers with isolated heavier during Friday.

Temperatures average above normal during this period.

Mostly dry Saturday through Monday. Temperatures average above normal during this period. High temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s, middle 90s may occur in Cordoba province.

Outlook: Major corn and soybean areas may remain mostly dry and hot next Tuesday and Wednesday. Longer range charts suggest a cold front passage Thursday with scattered thundershowers and somewhat cooler temperatures.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(SK)

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