DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a trough over western Alaska. A ridge over eastern Alaska and northwest Canada and a trough over northeast Canada and Greenland. This is a mild/cool pattern for Canada. The southern branch of the jet features a ridge in the eastern pacific. A trough in the northern Gulf of Alaska. A trough over southwest Canada and the western U.S. A trough over south-central Canada and the north-central U.S. A ridge over the interior eastern U.S. and a trough off the east coast of the U.S. The center of subtropical high pressure is located over northeast Mexico.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 5 days. Fair-good agreement days 6-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet will feature a series of weak ridges and troughs extending from Alaska across northern Canada into Greenland. This will be a variable temperature pattern for Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the western U.S. A trough over the central U.S. and a trough off the east coast associated with tropical systems. The trough over the central U.S. will be the focus of scattered showers and thunderstorms which will benefit winter wheat in the southern plains and help recharge soil moisture in the Midwest. Behind this trough colder weather will move into the Prairies over the weekend producing a seasonal end to the growing season in many areas. Some frost and light freeze conditions could extend southward into the northern plains early next week. However little crop damage is expected

This pattern will feature above to much above normal temperatures in the Midwest during the next 7 days. Variable days 8-10. Rainfall near to above normal west, near to below normal east. The northern plains will see above to much above normal temperatures during the next 3 days, near to below normal thereafter. Rainfall near to above normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. The southern plains will see above to much above normal temperatures during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. Rainfall near to above normal. The Delta states will see above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...105 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW MON...21 AT HOHNHOLZ RANCH CO

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...EVANSVILLE IN 1.51 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair-good agreement during the period.

The main difference is with the movement of a trough in the northern US. The European model is a little faster moving it eastward early in the period but by days 9-10 both models have it in about the same location. The southern branch of the jet stream will feature a ridge along the northwest coast of the US.

And a trough over the north-central US. This trough will be the focus of scattered showers and thunderstorms which will benefit winter wheat in the southern plains and help recharge soil moisture in the Midwest. Behind this trough colder weather will move into the Prairies over the weekend producing a seasonal end to the growing season in many areas. Some frost and light freeze conditions could extend southward into the northern plains early next week.

However little crop damage is expected.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICS: Hurricane Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of the Delmarva peninsula later today, pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast on Wednesday, and pass offshore of southeastern Massachusetts by Thursday.

Maria is a category 4 hurricane. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Maria is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 or 5 hurricane while it approaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): Favorable weather for maturing corn and soybeans. Some disruptions to any early harvest however rainfall recharges soil moisture. No damaging cold weather during the next 7 days.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT, LIVESTOCK): Some beneficial rainfall for planting and emergence of winter wheat is expected during the next 7 days.

DELTA (COTTON/SOYBEANS): Drier, warmer weather lasting at least the next 7 days will help improve the condition of mature crops and improve conditions for the harvest.

SOUTHEAST US (COTTON,PEANUTS): The region looks to see only a few light showers with locally heavier during the next 7 days, along with warm temperatures. This should allow crops hit by rain and wind associated with Irma to improve.

FLORIDA (CITRUS/SUGARCANE/VEGETABLES): Hurricane Irma generated strong wind gusts as well as very heavy to torrential rains. This is likely to cause significant losses to the fruit on the trees as well as sugarcane and vegetables. It may also mean damage to citrus trees in some locations. This was a category 4 hurricane when it made landfall in southwest Florida.

NORTHERN PLAINS (CORN/SOYBEANS): Favorable weather for maturing corn and soybeans. Rainfall disrupts the early harvest but recharges soil moisture. Some frost and light freeze conditions are possible early next week. However no significant crop damage is expected.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): Hot weather favors the developing crop.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS (Mato Grosso): Rain is needed to initiate soybean planting in the northern Mato Grosso. Dry weather is expected during the next 7 days. Some rain may develop beyond the 7 day period.

AUSTRALIA: Dry weather increases stress on developing wheat in northeast Australia. Little rainfall is expected in this region during the next 5 days.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Scattered light to moderate showers and thunderstorms with locally heavier. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered light to moderate showers and thunderstorms with locally heavier. Temperatures above to much above normal.

Forecast...

West: Mostly dry weather Tuesday. Scattered light to moderate showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Thursday-Friday. Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms over northern and western areas Saturday-Sunday and in all areas on Monday. Temperatures above to much above normal.

East: Scattered light to moderate showers Tuesday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Wednesday. Scattered light to locally moderate showers Thursday.

Dry conditions or just a few light showers Friday. Dry weather Saturday-Sunday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Monday.

Temperatures above to much above normal.

6 to 10 day outlook... Temperatures variable west, near to above normal east.

Rainfall near to above normal west, near to below normal east.

Central/Southern Plains (Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Scattered light showers in the east. Dry weather in the west.

Temperatures above to much above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry weather through Friday. Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday-Monday. Some moderate to heavy totals are expected.

Temperatures above to much above normal through Saturday, variable Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures variable. Rainfall near to above normal.

North Plains (Spring Wheat and Corn)

Summary: Dry conditions. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms over eastern areas tonight. Dry weather Wednesday-Thursday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday. Dry weather Monday. Temperatures above to much above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday, below normal Saturday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures near to below normal. Rainfall near to below normal.

Brazil...Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias (Soybeans)

Dry conditions. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast...

Dry weather during the next 7 days. Temperatures above normal.

Mike Palmerino

(SK)

Copyright 2017 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.