DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 5 1/4 cents in the September contract and down 5 3/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were down 1 1/4 cents in the September contract and down 2 1/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 8 1/2 cents in the December Chicago contract, down 7 cents in the December Kansas City, and up 5 1/4 cents in the December Minneapolis contract. The September U.S. dollar index is down 0.60 at 91.65. December gold is up $11 at $1,350 while December silver is up 20 cents and December copper is down $0.0045. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 36 at 21,771. October crude oil is up $0.07 at $49.09. October heating oil is up $0.0267 while October RBOB gasoline is down $0.0123 and October natural gas is down $0.020.

Corn:

December corn closed down 5 3/4 cents Thursday with traders cautious about what USDA might estimate for this year's corn crop in its Sept. 12 WASDE report. Thursday's weather map showed light, scattered showers in Wisconsin and Michigan, but was mostly dry for the rest of the Corn Belt with mild temperatures prevailing. The seven-day forecast continues to look dry and, so far, there are no expectations for significant freeze -- a heightened concern this year as crops are slower developing than usual. Friday's weekly report of export sales will be the final one of 2016-17 and is on pace to result in a slightly lower ending stocks estimate for old-crop corn. But not much price impact is likely to result, with old-crop stocks still high and traders more concerned about the size of the next crop. Technically, December corn remains in a downtrend with commercials still lightly net short on the board. Even so, the August low of $3.44 1/4 may stand as this year's seasonal low after the month of August demoralized traders. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.15 Wednesday, priced 46 cents below the December contract and up from its lowest price in nine months. There were 195 deliveries for September corn early Thursday. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is down 0.60, near its lowest prices in over two years. Eurostat reported real GDP in the Eurozone was up 2.3% in the second quarter from a year ago, a sign of improving growth in Europe. Meanwhile, U.S. jobless claims jumped to a two-year high of 298,000 last week, adversely affected by Hurricane Harvey.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed down 2 1/4 cents Thursday, a slight pause after four consecutive days higher. 2017 has seen a wide range of weather challenges and USDA's crop ratings are at their lowest in four years, but timely rains in August in the western and central Midwest gave crop prospects a late boost while parts of Iowa and Illinois fell short of the moisture they need. Tuesday's WASDE report next week will offer another clue, but in the meantime, commercials have been active buyers of both, soybeans and meal lately, which suggests firm support for prices ahead. Friday morning's export sales report will be interesting and may bolster the case for a modestly lower estimate of old-crop ending soybean stocks from USDA. This week's higher soybean prices leave behind a higher low in August which is bullish price behavior at a time of year when potential buyers are usually difficult to find ahead of harvest. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.07 Wednesday, priced 64 cents below the November contract and holding above its lows in June. Among September contracts, Thursday morning's September delivery intentions totaled 145 for soybeans, 180 for soybean meal, and 432 for soybean oil.

Wheat

December Chicago wheat closed down 8 1/2 cents, giving back this week's gain as potential buyers find it difficult to make an argument for higher winter wheat prices. Over 90% of the spring wheat harvest is in, and even though the Northwestern U.S. continues to deal with smoke and wildfires, the threat is not having a significant impact on spring wheat prices. Of course, this year's larger spring wheat threat was drought, and as bad as it was in the northwestern Plains, traders' worries about that peaked in early July and left Minneapolis wheat prices sliding lower since. DTN's national index of cash HRS wheat prices will be around $5.85 a bushel on Thursday evening, still up $1.50 from a year ago, but is not finding signs of solid support just yet. December Chicago wheat, which is much cheaper than spring wheat, remains in a downtrend, but like corn, may have found support at its August low of $4.22 1/2. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4 Wednesday, priced 45 cents below the December contract and up from its lowest price in four months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.65, up from its lowest price in four months. Among September wheat contracts, delivery intentions totaled 18 for Chicago, 204 for K.C., and 13 for Minneapolis early Thursday.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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