DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Morning CME Globex Update:

Corn, soybeans, and wheat were all lower early Monday, pressured by a new seven-day forecast which expects a broad coverage of rain across the central and eastern U.S.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Higher
U.S. Dollar Index:	Higher
Gold:	Lower
Crude Oil:	Lower

Corn:

December corn was down 4 1/4 cents early, erasing Friday's gain as the new seven-day forecast expects a broad coverage of rain over most of the Corn Belt, including Iowa where conditions have been dry lately. Monday's weather map also shows rains in central Iowa and the southern Plains. At the same time, temperatures will stay moderate this week, giving row crops important late-summer help. This week's wetter forecast comes after USDA posted a yield estimate of 169.5 bushels an acre last week and adds to the bearish pressures that corn faces are facing as we head toward harvest. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials in corn still bullish, holding 137,764 net longs as of Aug. 8 -- a number that probably declined after Thursday's bearish USDA report. December corn continues to trade near new lows in 2017, succumbing to bearish seasonal pressure as harvest nears. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.21 Friday, priced 40 cents below the September contract and at the low end of its sideways range in 2017. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is up 0.28 and December gold is down $8.00 after China agreed to ban important imports from North Korea, starting Tuesday.

Soybeans:

November soybeans were down 9 3/4 cents early Monday, continuing the bearish tone from last week's new USDA estimates and facing a wetter seven-day forecast which includes the drier areas of the central Midwest. Over the weekend, light to moderate rains fell over the western Plains and are crossing central Iowa early Monday. We have seen exaggerated forecast amounts this summer, but if the rain amounts in this week's forecast verify, they will offer an important boost to this year's soybean crops. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials still lightly bullish in soybeans, holding 41,412 net longs as of Aug. 8. Monday afternoon's soybean crop ratings from USDA are likely to be a little lower as last week was dry across the central Midwest, but prices may be less apt to respond to these ratings after Thursday's bearish WASDE report. November soybeans continue to trade near the low end of their range in 2017 with concerns for a record harvest this fall. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.79 Friday, priced 66 cents below the November contract and near its lowest price in over a month. Among August contracts, there were 98 deliveries of soybeans, 115 deliveries of meal, and 79 deliveries of soybean oil early Monday, the final day of trading.

Wheat:

September Chicago wheat was down 6 1/4 cents early Monday, still falling to new lows after USDA estimated a new record high of world ending wheat stocks in Thursday's WASDE report. Monday's new seven-day forecast also expects more rain in parts of the southwestern Plains which should be beneficial for fall planting conditions. Eastern South Dakota is included in this week's rain forecast, but the northwestern Plains still has not seen much relief from this year's drought and it is fair to wonder if it will still be an issue in early 2018. For now however, spring wheat prices are finding it difficult to maintain a bull market when world wheat supplies are predicted at a new record high. September Minneapolis wheat is down 19 1/2 cents at its lowest price since June. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials turned bearish in Chicago wheat as of Aug. 8, holding 3,953 net shorts. Commercials were net long 8,504 contracts as participants head back to their familiar corners. Winter wheat prices are near their lowest levels in 2017, still looking for support after a year of lower U.S. wheat production. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.09 Friday, priced 30 cents below the September contract and at its lowest price in nearly two months.

ToddHultmancan be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

FollowTodd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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