DTN Closing Livestock Comments

GENERAL COMMENTS

Light-to-moderate trade surfaced in parts of cattle feeding country. Live sales in Nebraska were mostly marked at $118, $1 higher than last week. On the other hand, live business in the South (mostly Kansas) took place at $116-$117, steady to $1 lower. According to the closing report, the national hog base is unchanged ($73-82.50, weighted average $79.86). Corn futures closed several cents higher at the conclusion of lackluster trading. The stock market closed mixed with the Dow settling above 22,000 for the first time ever (i.e., up 52 points). The Nasdaq closed about unchanged.

LIVE CATTLE

Wednesday's action in the live trade was a roller coaster of volatility. First one side to a swing and then the other, back and forth like two worthy opponents in a cage match. But given the fact that final settlements printed mostly 107 to 180 higher, bullish specs and commercials must have been the last traders standing. Ultimate triple-digit gains were supported by aggressive short-covering and reports of higher cash sales. October and December closed right below 40-day moving averages. Beef cut-outs: moderately lower, off $0.35 (choice, $205.06) to $0.87 (select, $197.42) with light-to-moderate demand and moderate offerings (85 loads of choice cuts, 27 loads of select cuts, 17 loads of trimmings, 20 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL:

Steady/firm with Wednesday. Trade volume is expected to improve on Thursday and/or Friday as packers edge closer to higher asking prices.

FEEDER CATTLE

As in the case of live futures, the feeder market experienced an orgy of price swings through the session with 300-point ranges common from one mix to the next. Yet when the smoke cleared, most settlements were 85 to 145 points higher. Most feeder issues settled above 10-day moving average highs. CME cash feeder index: 08/01: $150.43, off $0.36.

LEAN HOGS

The lean hog trade closed 40 to 215 points higher with the first four contracts surging ahead of the back of the board. The staunching of cash bleeding in recent days no doubt helped Wednesday's recovery. Additionally, the correction of oversold conditions probably also played a positive role. The carcass value plunged nearly $2 lower thanks to retreating demand for fresh cuts, picnics and bellies. Pork cut-out: $96.86, off $1.96. CME cash lean index for 07/31: $87.70, off $0.40 (DTN Projected lean index for 08/01: $87.35, off $0.35).

THURSDAY'S CASH HOG CALL:

Steady to $1 lower. Look for hog buyers to commence business in the morning with steady/weak bids, made somewhat more cautious by Thursday's large country run and the struggling carcass value.

For more from John, see http://www.feelofthemarket.com/…

(AG)

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