DTN Early Word Grains
There's Quiet and There's Tuesday Morning Quiet
July corn was unchanged, July soybeans were fractionally lower, and July Kansas City (HRW) wheat was fractionally higher.
CME Globex Recap:The grain complex did little overnight, with most contracts posting narrow trading ranges on low volume. Some of this was a reaction to Monday's sell-off, and could be a sign of things to come ahead of Wednesday's round of USDA reports. Outside markets were a bit more active with energies mostly higher, metals mostly lower, while DJIA futures and the U.S. dollar index rallied. The latter continues to show strength following this past weekend's presidential election in France.
P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 5.34 points higher at 21,012.28, the Nasdaq Composite added 1.90 points to 6,102.66, and the S&P 500 gained 0.09 point to 2,399.38 Monday. DJIA futures were 16 points higher early Tuesday morning. Asian markets closed mixed with Japan's Nikkei down 52.70 points (0.3%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng gaining 311.12 points (1.3%), and China's Shanghai Composite adding 1.91 points. European markets were trading higher with London's FTSE 100 up 44.67 points (0.6%), Germany's DAX rallying 70.07 points (0.6%), and France's CAC 40 gaining 24.62 points (0.5%). The euro was 0.0025 lower at 1.0899 while the U.S. dollar index gained 0.22 to 99.37. June 30-year T-Bonds were 10/32 lower at 151'00 while June gold lost $2.30 to $1,224.80. Crude oil was $0.13 higher at $46.56 while Brent crude was up $0.16 at $49.50. Malaysian palm oil futures were higher again overnight.
BULL | BEAR | ||
1) | Corn could find light buying interest on a "Turnaround Tuesday" rationale. | 1) | Export demand for U.S. corn is seeing a contra-seasonal slowdown. |
2) | Export demand for U.S. soybeans continue to show contra-seasonal strength. | 2) | Technically, soybeans could be looking at another day selling interest gaining momentum. |
3) | Winter wheat contracts are nearing the completion of a pattern against short-term uptrends. | 3) | The U.S. dollar continues to strengthen against foreign currencies, limiting buying interest in U.S. wheat. |
The weekly Newsom on the Market column can be found on subscription sites only. On DTN Pro it is in News/Town Hall and on MyDTN in News/Columns.
MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTSCORN To say corn was quiet overnight seems like an understatement. Through early Tuesday morning, old-crop July had moved within a 1 1/2-cent range on trade volume of 8,000 contracts with new-crop December showing a 1 1/4-cent difference between high and low on volume of 1,700 contracts. Fittingly enough, both were sitting at unchanged as of this writing. While light buying is possible Tuesday, there is little fresh news to spark increased trade interest. Traders of both old-crop and new-crop will look to keep their powder dry until USDA's May round of Supply and Demand and Crop Production reports are released late Wednesday morning. As discussed in DTN's Report Preview, new-crop will steal the spotlight with USDA's third initial look at new-crop numbers while the bigger story is possible changes in old-crop demand. Delivery of another 712 contracts was reported against the May issue, putting the total at 5,916 contracts.
SOYBEANS Similar to corn, one has to wonder why soybeans bothered to open Monday evening. Through early Tuesday morning, old-crop July had posted a range of 3 1/2 cents on trade volume of 9,400 contracts while new-crop November moved 3 3/4 cents on volume of 3,200 contracts. Also as with corn there is little fresh news to give direction to soybeans, with traders comfortable waiting on the release of USDA's May Supply and Demand and Crop Production reports. The most interesting aspect of this data set should be changes to old-crop demand, particularly exports, though 99% of market watchers will be prattling on about USDA's third initial guesses regarding new-crop numbers. There were no new deliveries reported against the May issue, leaving the total at 3,132 contracts.
WHEAT Winter wheat contracts were lower again early Tuesday as both July Chicago and July Kansas City look to complete classic 2-1-2 short-term patterns against their minor uptrends on daily charts. Rather than the more familiar two days down against a minor uptrend, both contracts fell two days last week, rallied Friday, and now look to follow-up Monday's sell-off by trading lower again Tuesday. Both are testing short-term price support, while the Chicago contract has also closed the bullish price gap on its daily chart left a week ago Monday. With technical looking to turn more bullish following Tuesday's session, it implies USDA's May round of Supply and Demand and Crop Production reports could be less bearish (it's hard to say "more bullish") than expected. There were no new deliveries reported against the May Chicago issue, leaving its total at 1,327 contracts. Delivery of one contract was reported against the May Kansas City issue putting its total at 2,159 contracts.
DTN Cash | Change From | National | Contract | Change from | |
Commodity | Index | Prev Day | Avg. Basis | Month | Prev Day |
Corn: | $3.27 | -$0.04 | -$0.39 | Jul | $0.007 |
Soybeans: | $8.92 | -$0.08 | -$0.72 | Jul | -$0.002 |
SRW Wheat: | $3.92 | -$0.08 | -$0.42 | Jul | $0.011 |
HRW Wheat: | $3.58 | -$0.05 | -$0.86 | Jul | $0.004 |
HRS Wheat: | $5.03 | -$0.09 | -$0.42 | Jul | $0.004 |
Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com
Darin can be followed throughout the day at www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom
(KA)
Copyright 2017 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.