DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 4 3/4 cents in the May contract and down 4 cents in the December. Soybeans were down 7 1/4 cents in the May contract and down 5 1/2 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 1 1/2 cents in the May Chicago contract, up 3 cents in the May Kansas City, and up 10 1/2 cents in the May Minneapolis contract. The June U.S. dollar index is down 0.68 at 99.51. June gold is up $0.90 at $1,292.80 while May silver is down 18 cents and May copper is down $0.0670. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 112 at 20,525. June crude oil is down $0.14 at $52.97. June heating oil is down $0.0080 while June RBOB gasoline is down $0.0067 and June natural gas is down $0.018.

Corn:

May corn closed down 4 3/4 cents Tuesday, pressured by chances for beneficial rains in this week's forecast for central Brazil. Here in the U.S., the pace of corn planting remains a concern after USDA said 6% of the crop was planted as of Sunday, down from the five-year average pace of 9% planted. Tuesday's rain across the Northern Plains will add to delays as will the other moderate to heavy showers expected across much of the Corn Belt this week. Traders are not hitting the panic button on corn prices, but the wet spring pattern could shift some more corn acres toward soybeans. With USDA anticipating a record high corn production of 93.5 mmt from Brazil in 2016-2017, May corn prices are finding rallies difficult to sustain and are trending sideways, above support at $3.54 1/4. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.31 Monday, priced 36 cents below the May contract, and staying in a sideways range. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is down 0.68 with currency markets apt to be nervous this week ahead of the first round of France's presidential election on Apr. 23.

Soybeans:

May soybeans closed down 7 1/4 cents Tuesday, falling back from last week's rally, while the fundamental outlook remains heavily bearish for soybeans. Not only do we have a record soybean crop from Brazil following last fall's record U.S. crop, but we also have USDA estimating a record high soybean planting of 89.5 million acres, which could grow even higher if this year's wet spring continues to interfere with corn planting. Argentina has had problems recently with heavy rains and their harvest is said to be roughly 10 days behind the usual pace, but the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange still estimates a 56.5 mmt crop. World demand for soybeans continues to grow, but so far, producers are staying ahead of the trend, thanks to four years of good growing weather. Until a threat emerges, May soybeans remain in a downtrend with possible support at last week's low of $9.29 3/4. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.80 Monday, priced 73 cents below the May contract and up from its lowest prices in a year. In related news, the International Monetary Fund estimated world GDP will increase from 3.1% growth in 2016 to 3.5% growth in 2017, slightly bullish news for grain demand.

Wheat:

May Chicago wheat closed up 1 1/2 cents, finding light commercial buying interest near its March low of $4.16 1/2. As everyone knows, we are about to start a new season with over one billion bushels of U.S. carry and, so far, the new winter wheat crops are doing pretty well given their dry start early this year. USDA said 13% of the new winter wheat crop was rated poor to very poor and DTN's Winter Wheat Condition Index of 133 is well above the five-year average of 106. USDA also said spring wheat planting was 13% complete, a slow start, which helped May Minneapolis wheat end up 10 1/2 cents Tuesday. However, May Chicago wheat continues to trend sideways under bearish strain with no bullish arguments to help lift prices yet. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.81 Monday, priced 40 cents below the May contract and near its lowest price in three months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.26 and at its lowest price in three months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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