DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 4 3/4 cents in the May contract and down 4 1/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were down 1/2 cent in the May contract and down 1 1/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 3/4 cent in the May Chicago contract, up 2 3/4 cents in the May Kansas City and down 3 3/4 cents in the May Minneapolis contract.

The June U.S. dollar index is up 0.07 at 100.48. June gold is up $3.80 at $1,257.80 while May silver is up 10 cents and May copper is up $0.0155. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 37 at 20,687. May crude oil is up $0.88 at $51.12. May heating oil is up $0.0306 while May RBOB gasoline is up $0.0283 and May natural gas is up $0.151.

Corn:

May corn closed down 4 3/4 cents Tuesday, erasing Monday's gain as the bullishness of Friday's new 90 million acre planting estimate showed signs of wearing out. Late Monday, state NASS offices showed corn planting off to a decent start in spite of recent rains in the southeastern states. Louisiana is 90% planted, Mississippi 63%, Texas 56% and Georgia 49% planted. The heaviest rains the next seven days stretch from Missouri into the northeastern U.S. so some areas will continue to see interrupted fieldwork. In South America where the immediate threat of new supplies is coming from, conditions remain generally favorable, except for a chance of too much rain in central Argentina in the week ahead. Friday's reversal halted the downward trend in May corn and prices are apt to trade sideways with important support at $3.54 1/4. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.30 Monday, priced 38 cents below the May contract and up from its lowest prices in 2017. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is up 0.07 in quiet trading. May natural gas is Tuesday's big winner among commodity contracts, trading up 16.1 cents (+5.1%).

Soybeans:

In spite of trading lower in eight of the past nine days, May soybeans are still struggling to find support and closed down another half-cent on Tuesday. Good growing weather in Brazil has produced a record soybean crop in early 2017 and accounts for most of soybeans' bearish pressure. Even with harvest now two-thirds done, crop estimates continue to creep higher, some three to five million metric tons above USDA's 108.0 mmt estimate. Friday's estimate from USDA that soybean plantings will hit a record high 89.5 million acres here in the U.S. this spring is also not helping prices trade higher. The current environment has effectively scared away the buy side of the market, and it may be a while before prices are able to stabilize. For now, May soybeans remain in a downtrend with no signs of support yet. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.62 Monday, priced 76 cents below the May contract and at its lowest price in nearly a year.

Wheat:

May Chicago wheat closed down 3/4 cent Tuesday, not showing much concern about Monday's lower crop ratings from USDA. May Kansas City wheat ended up 2 3/4 cents, helped by commercial bargain hunting. USDA said 14% of the winter wheat crop was rated poor to very poor, putting DTN's Winter Wheat Index at 126, down from 147 when USDA last rated crops in November and down from 154 a year ago. There is still time for conditions to change and Kansas and the Texas Panhandle got more rain on Tuesday. Around the rest of the world, there have been no major crop concerns yet, but the new season is still young. Until more is known about the next round of wheat crops, May Chicago prices are apt to trade sideways with support at $4.16 1/2. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.85 Monday, priced 43 cents below the May contract and up from its lowest prices in three months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.27 and near its lowest price in three months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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