DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Morning CME Globex Update:

Row crops were steady to higher early Monday even though crop conditions remain generally favorable in Brazil. Chicago wheat was down 3 cents, having survived this weekend's colder temperatures in the southwestern Plains and looking forward to a week of milder weather ahead.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Lower
U.S. Dollar Index:	Lower
Gold:	Lower
Crude Oil:	Higher

Corn:

May corn was up 1/4 cent early Monday, once again showing quiet market action overnight after a relatively uneventful weekend for row crops. DTN's seven-day forecast expects light to moderate showers in Brazil and Argentina, a bearish recipe for crop conditions, which remains generally favorable. Even though Brazil appears to be headed toward a record corn crop this summer, noncommercial traders are showing no sign of backing away yet. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials still bullish in corn with 172,938 contracts net long as of Feb. 21, up 2,522 from the previous week. May corn remains in a gradual uptrend with support at the six-week low of $3.84. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.26 Friday, priced 44 cents below the May contract and down from its highest price in seven months. In outside markets, other commodities are mixed and the March U.S. dollar index is quiet, trading down 0.13.

Soybeans:

May soybeans were up 2 1/2 cents early Monday, overcoming a 1.8% overnight drop in palm oil futures with help from early commercial buying in soybean meal. The early interest in meal is another indication of how demand has not left the market yet, even after a string of selling took prices to a new six-week low last week. Similarly, noncommercial traders still remain bullish in soybeans with Friday's CFTC data showing 166,769 net longs on Feb. 21, down 9,552 from the previous week. The immediate bearish concern for soybeans continues to be the steady progress of Brazil's soybean harvest, now 34% complete, according to the private firm, Safras & Mercado. That progress is expected to continue with a favorable seven-day forecast for both, Brazil and Argentina. The trend in May soybeans turned lower last week with possible support at the 2017 low of $10.01. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.38 Friday, priced 87 cents below the May contract and up from a new six-week low.

Wheat:

May Chicago wheat was down 2 3/4 cents early, after getting past a weekend of subfreezing temperatures. This week's temperatures are expected to be mildly warm in the southwestern Plains and conditions will remain mostly dry, but it is too early for prices to show concern about the winter crops. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercial traders roughly neutral in Chicago wheat with 8,327 contracts net short as of Feb. 21, something that we have not seen since August 2015. The price correction that we have seen in 2017 goes along with this reset of noncommercial positions and puts wheat prices on more stable footing as the market anticipates a new round of winter crops early in 2017. May Chicago wheat remains in an uptrend, but a sideways trading range is likely to develop in early March. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.95 Friday, priced 53 cents below the May contract and down from its highest price in seven months.

Todd Hultmancan be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

FollowTodd on Twitter@ToddHultman1

(KA)

Copyright 2017 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.