DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices tracked by DTN for the week including the last couple of days of July and the first few days of August 2023 continue to move lower. All eight major fertilizers were lower compared to a month ago.

In addition, seven of the eight major fertilizers had a considerable price move looking back a month. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

Leading the way lower once again was anhydrous. The nitrogen fertilizer was 15% lower compared to last month and had an average price of $638/ton.

Anhydrous dropped below the $700/ton level for the first time since the first week of April 2021. That week the average price was $692/ton.

Also, double-digits lower was UAN32. The nitrogen fertilizer was 12% less expensive and had an average price of $411/ton.

The trio of DAP, MAP and urea were all 7% lower compared to last month. DAP had an average price of $766/ton, MAP $773/ton and urea $572/ton.

Both DAP and MAP fell below the $800/ton level for the first time in almost two full years. DAP was last at this level the second week of October 2021 at $798/ton, while the last time MAP was this low was the third week of September 2021 when the price was $786/ton.

Potash was 6% less expensive compared to a month earlier. The fertilizer had an average price of $579/ton. UAN28 was 5% lower looking back a month and the fertilizer had an average price of $378/ton.

One fertilizer was just slightly lower compared to the prior month. 10-34-0 was just slightly lower and had an average price of $713/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.62/lb.N, anhydrous $0.39/lb.N, UAN28 $0.68/lb.N and UAN32 $0.64/lb.N.

Decreasing fertilizer prices was the subject of a University of Illinois farmdocDaily article titled "Weekly Farm Economics: Fertilizer Prices Continue Year-Long Decline from 2022 Peak" (https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/…). Since peaking in the second quarter of 2022, fertilizer prices have trended downward.

There are a couple of different reasons for lower fertilizer prices, according to the report.

The cost of natural gas, the key energy input in the processing of anhydrous ammonia and other fertilizer products, has trended downward over the past year after peaking in 2022. In addition, corn prices have also declined 12% from last year's high of $7.38 per bushel in June 2022.

"Declining fertilizer prices should, on their own, point to improved prospects for farm-level returns in 2023 and 2024," the report stated.

Looking ahead to 2024, the extended downward trend in prices might suggest a wait-and-see approach to 2024 fertilizer needs. However, natural gas futures indicate market expectations for prices to move from the current $2 range back to the mid- to high-$3 range over the next six months, while corn futures suggest prices near or just below $5 per bushel for the 2024 crop.

"Fertilizer prices are also approaching levels experienced in 2021," the report said. "Therefore, market expectations and ongoing risks suggest considering the pricing of at least a portion of fertilizer needs for the upcoming year."

All fertilizers are now lower by double digits compared to one year ago. 10-34-0 is 20% lower, DAP is 24% less expensive, MAP is 25% lower, urea is 30% less expensive, potash is 35% lower, UAN28 is 36% less expensive, UAN32 is 40% lower and anhydrous is 54% less expensive compared to a year prior.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

Fertilizer expenses ballooned in 2022 as farmers spent almost 20% more on nutrients than the year before spending $36.8 billion, according to a recent USDA report. You can read about it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Alexis Maxwell, a fertilizer analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence/Green Markets, will join the DTN Ag Summit Series on Aug. 15 to discuss what's influencing prices and whether it's a good year to book your needs early.

She specializes in financial and economic analysis of fertilizer markets and producers. Prior to joining Bloomberg, Maxwell was a market analyst at CF Industries and SABIC. While she frequently presents to investment groups and others in the financial world, she says she's looking forward to presenting to farmers.

Sign up to hear Alexis's presentation, along with the rest of the Ag Summit Series: Digital Yield Tour, here: https://www.dtn.com/….

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Aug 1-5 2022	1003	1036	883	812
Aug 29-Sep 2 2022	952	1022	877	804
Sep 26-30 2022	947	1005	874	812
Oct 24-28 2022	930	986	862	827
Nov 21-25 2022	927	972	841	802
Dec 19-Dec 23 2022	890	909	790	757
Jan 16-Jan 20 2023	859	865	721	712
Feb 13-Feb 17 2023	838	857	692	686
Mar 13-Mar 17 2023	825	821	655	638
Apr 10-14 2023	821	809	642	625
May 8-12 2023	828	826	627	664
June 5-9 2023	822	832	618	622
July 3-7 2023	824	827	619	615
July 31-Aug 4 2023	766	773	579	572
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Aug 1-5 2022	892	1387	592	679
Aug 29-Sep 2 2022	866	1364	576	671
Sep 26-30 2022	861	1380	581	670
Oct 24-28 2022	759	1422	580	678
Nov 21-25 2022	753	1419	583	681
Dec 19-Dec 23 2022	751	1360	578	681
Jan 16-Jan 20 2023	755	1238	536	634
Feb 13-Feb 17 2023	754	1213	483	572
Mar 13-Mar 17 2023	740	1059	428	521
Apr 10-14 2023	740	1003	427	507
May 8-12 2023	739	910	423	517
June 5-9 2023	739	787	411	478
July 3-7 2023	730	752	396	466
July 31-Aug 4 2023	713	638	378	411

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

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