DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- A majority of retail fertilizer prices are lower the third week of October 2020 compared to a month earlier, with only the two phosphate prices bucking the trend, according to retailers surveyed by DTN.

This breaks a six-week streak where five of the eight major fertilizers tracked by DTN have been lower. This week, the price of six fertilizers declined.

While there were six fertilizers lower in price compared to last month, none were down a significant amount, which DTN designates as 5% or more. Potash had an average price $332 per ton, down $6; urea $359/ton, down $3; 10-34-0 $456/ton, down $1; anhydrous $424/ton, down $1; UAN28 $209/ton, down $6; and UAN32 $249/ton, down $4.

Of the two remaining fertilizers that had higher prices, MAP was up a significant amount. Its average retail price increased $23/ton, or 5%, from last month to $476/ton.

The price of DAP was also higher, up $12/ton, at $446/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.39/lb.N, anhydrous $0.26/lb.N, UAN28 $0.37/lb.N and UAN32 $0.39/lb.N.

Occasionally, I like to look back on the nearly 12 years of DTN retail fertilizer price data to observe price trends. As I expected, prices for some fertilizers are near all-time lows.

I thought this might be the case with UAN28's average price of $209/ton. Looking back, this is the lowest price since the fourth week of October 2017, when the average price was $208/ton.

The lowest price for UAN28 in the entire data set was from the second week of October 2017 when the price fell to $205/ton. If current retail prices continue to decline, we could set a new all-time low in the coming weeks. Stay tuned.

If UAN28 is near an all-time DTN low price, then surely UAN32 must be this low as well, doesn't it? The answer to that question is yes.

UAN32 for last week was at $249/ton. The last time its price was this low was the first week of October 2017, when it was $243/ton, which is also the all-time low price in our data set for UAN32.

Then I wondered where we are historically on the price of fertilizers that could actually be applied this fall -- anhydrous, DAP and MAP. There is both good and bad news with these fertilizers.

First the good news. Anhydrous is at the lowest price, $424/ton last week, since the first week of December 2017. The all-time low price in the DTN data set for anhydrous was $393/ton set the fourth week of October 2017.

And now the bad news. DAP and MAP prices are nowhere near all-time lows like some of the other fertilizers.

DAP's average price of $446/ton last week was the highest price since the last week of November 2019 when the price was $456/ton. MAP's average price of $476/ton last week was the highest price since the second week of September 2019 when the price was at $482/ton.

The all-time-high DAP and MAP prices were set back in the not-so-good old days of 2008. The first week of November 2008 saw DAP at $985/ton and MAP $1,079/ton. That week was also the all-time high for anhydrous at $1,043/ton in DTN's data set.

So, while DAP and MAP prices are not at all-time DTN low prices, they are also a long way from the all-time highs.

Like last week, all but one of the fertilizers are lower in price from a year earlier. Only one fertilizer, MAP, is higher at 1% higher than last year.

The remaining seven fertilizers are lower compared to last year. 10-34-0 is 3% lower, DAP is 4% less expensive, urea is 11% lower, both potash and UAN32 are 14% less expensive, anhydrous is 16% lower and UAN28 is 17% lower than last year.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Oct 21-25, 2019	465	473	383	404
Nov 18-22 2019	456	466	381	387
Dec 16-20 2019	444	460	378	377
Jan 13-17 2020	433	444	375	357
Feb 10-14 2020	413	435	373	361
Mar 9-13 2020	407	432	370	377
Apr 6-10 2020	409	434	370	382
May 4-8 2020	413	433	370	388
Jun 1-5 2020	407	431	364	373
Jun 29-Jul 3 2020	406	427	361	357
Jul 27-31 2020	410	429	358	355
Aug 24-28 2020	430	435	352	355
Sep 21-25 2020	434	453	338	361
Oct 19-23 2020	446	476	332	359
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Oct 21-25, 2019	471	507	251	291
Nov 18-22 2019	472	496	245	284
Dec 16-20 2019	469	487	239	276
Jan 13-17 2020	470	487	237	275
Feb 10-14 2020	464	490	235	277
Mar 9-13 2020	466	490	235	278
Apr 6-10 2020	468	492	235	278
May 4-8 2020	468	492	237	280
Jun 1-5 2020	468	475	236	276
Jun 29-Jul 3 2020	468	461	233	272
Jul 27-31 2020	465	454	223	262
Aug 24-28 2020	464	442	219	258
Sep 21-25 2020	457	425	215	253
Oct 19-23 2020	456	424	209	249

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter at @RussQuinnDTN

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