DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices are mixed for the second week of August with half lower than last month and the other half higher, according to retailers surveyed by DTN. It has been several months since this many fertilizers have been lower.

While four major fertilizer prices declined, the move to the lower side was fairly muted. Urea had an average price of $363 per ton, anhydrous $481/ton, UAN28 $233/ton and UAN32 $271/ton.

Prices for the remaining half were slightly higher than last month. DAP had an average price of $487/ton, MAP $508/ton, potash $356/ton and 10-34-0 $446/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.39/lb.N, anhydrous $0.29/lb.N, UAN28 $0.42/lb.N and UAN32 $0.42/lb.N.

Lower grain prices have thrown agricultural stocks off the bull market in recent years, but Wall Street appears to be warming to the fertilizer industry. Three large companies -- CF Industries Holdings, the Mosaic Co. and Nutrien (the company created from the PotashCorp and Agrium merger) -- all saw a lift in early August following good second-quarter earnings, according to Dow Jones.

"The new supply, which was coming on fairly rapidly, is slowing its advance," Charlie Neivert, a chemical analyst at Cowen & Co., said in the article. "And demand, which constantly increases, is catching up."

Corn prices have stayed fairly stable despite the Trump administration's escalation of trade tensions, while prices have been rising for fertilizers. Nutrien CEO Chuck Margo said the fundamentals of the industry are improving and the supply-and-demand fundamentals could grow tight by the 2020-21 season.

The shares of fertilizer companies' stock fell significantly alongside crop prices since 2015.

Shares of CF Industries, the leading nitrogen producer, slid from $70 to $22. The company's revenue recovered last year and grew for the first time in several years. CF stock moved up 12% on Aug. 1 this year to $49.

Much of the world's demand growth for fertilizer is in Brazil, Russia, India and China, according to Mosaic CEO Joc O'Rourke. He expects Brazilian demand for potash and phosphate fertilizer to grow alongside the nation's soybean production.

O'Rourke said he isn't happy about the impacts of the U.S.-China trade war on American farmers. However, Mosaic is hedged against that problem because U.S. farmers' losses are Brazilian farmers' gain.

All eight of the major fertilizers are now higher compared to last year with prices shifting higher in recent months. Potash is 5% higher, 10-34-0 is 6% more expensive, both UAN28 and UAN32 are 8% higher, MAP is 11% higher, DAP is 12% more expensive, anhydrous is 15% higher and urea is 19% more expensive compared to last year.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Aug 14-18 2017	434	460	338	305
Sep 11-15 2017	431	456	336	310
Oct 9-13 2017	432	453	347	325
Nov 6-10 2017	434	459	341	338
Dec 4-8 2017	438	471	343	344
Jan 1-5 2018	452	490	345	350
Jan 29-Feb 2 2018	458	492	344	355
Feb 26-Mar 2 2018	461	497	346	361
Mar 26-30 2018	470	506	350	370
Apr 23-27 2018	485	504	353	367
May 21-25 2018	483	504	354	364
Jun 18-22 2018	485	505	354	364
Jul 16-20 2018	486	505	354	366
Aug 13-17 2018	487	508	356	363
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Aug 14-18 2017	419	419	216	251
Sep 11-15 2017	416	412	210	248
Oct 9-13 2017	413	397	206	253
Nov 6-10 2017	403	409	216	272
Dec 4-8 2017	404	424	215	251
Jan 1-5 2018	409	474	219	256
Jan 29-Feb 2 2018	415	491	227	261
Feb 26-Mar 2 2018	416	496	233	279
Mar 26-30 2018	425	507	237	272
Apr 23-27 2018	431	507	241	277
May 21-25 2018	439	504	241	276
Jun 18-22 2018	440	503	242	277
Jul 16-20 2018	442	503	243	279
Aug 13-17 2018	446	481	233	271

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(KD/AG)

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