5 Midterm Races to Watch in the Midwest

WASHINGTON (DTN) -- Economic discontent in farm country is creating openings for Democrats in November's midterm elections, putting several Republican members of the House Agriculture Committee in competitive races that could help determine control of Congress.

Republicans are defending narrow congressional majorities at a time when farm businesses face persistent cost pressures and voters are weighing the administration's economic record.

Erin Covey, a House analyst at the Cook Political Report, projects Democrats could pick up 10 to 15 House seats, with 42 races considered competitive.

"If it's a seat that Trump won by less than 15 points, there is a potentially credible path to victory for a Democrat," said Covey.

Six members of the House Agriculture Committee are in competitive toss-up races, including Reps. Zach Nunn, R-Iowa; Derrick Van Orden, R-Wis.; Don Davis, D-N.C.; Rob Bresnahan, R-Pa.; Monica De La Cruz, R-Texas; and David Valadao, R-Calif., a dairy farmer from the Central Valley.

"These are very tough positions this cycle," Covey said, describing the challenges facing farm-state Republicans. She identified Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin as offering Democrats some of their best pickup opportunities.

The battle for control of the Senate remains uncertain, with seven races rated as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report, six of which involve seats currently held by Republicans.

The president's party typically loses congressional seats in midterm elections as voters react to the administration's record; in 2022, Republicans won the House while Democrats retained the Senate.

This year, 86 House members and 16 senators are departing through retirement or resignation, while economic dissatisfaction could affect Republican turnout.

"The other issue for Republicans in these states is not that these people are going to come out and vote for Democrats in large numbers; it's that they're just going to sit the election out, and they're not going to be motivated enough to vote for a Republican if they are dissatisfied with the state of the economy," said Covey.

Five competitive races highlight the role of farm policy in rural districts.

ROGER MARSHALL VS. ADAM HAMILTON -- KANSAS SENATE

Republican Sen. Roger Marshall faces Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton, a pastor, in a race rated a toss-up by the Cook Political Report.

Marshall has endorsements from Kansas Farm Bureau and the National Association of Wheat Growers, but not the Kansas Livestock Association. In June, he withdrew his co-sponsorship of the Save Our Bacon Act, legislation that would repeal California's Proposition 12, during a meeting with pork producers, costing him support from KLA and others.

Leading up to that decision, he faced attack ads from animal-welfare groups and the American Meat Producers Association due to his Save Our Bacon support.

See "Prop 12 Fight Escalates as Animal Rights Ad Campaign Targets Lawmakers," https://www.dtnpf.com/….

As a first-term senator, Marshall could face greater political vulnerability than longer-serving incumbents, Covey said, giving Hamilton an opportunity to appeal to voters frustrated with the economy and federal policy.

The candidates debated in front of a rowdy crowd at the Kansas State Fair in September, where both expressed support for passing a new farm bill but differed on proposed changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and food-security policy, with Marshall, a physician, backing the One Big Beautiful Bill, which adjusts states' cost-sharing requirements and SNAP participation rules.

Hamilton, a former Republican voter, is seeking support from rural moderates. If elected, his victory would end a Republican hold on the Kansas Senate seat that dates to 1932.

ASHLEY HINSON VS. JOSH TUREK -- IOWA SENATE

Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson is seeking to succeed Sen. Joni Ernst, bringing close alignment with Trump and an Iowa-focused agricultural perspective to the Senate contest.

Rising diesel prices have complicated Hinson's position on the conflict with Iran. She criticized the financial burden on consumers and farmers, writing on X that "Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn't have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran."

Democrat Josh Turek is campaigning on economic concerns and agricultural reform.

While Turek is one of the few major Iowa candidates without a farming background or previous experience in an agricultural policymaking role, his platform, described by Democrats as "prairie populism," includes federal right-to-repair protections, renewed support for mandatory country-of-origin labeling and criticism of both parties for delays in passing a farm bill.

"If we wake up Nov. 4 and you say Ashley Hinson lost, I'm going to say the Democrats probably picked up a lot of Senate seats," one Republican agriculture lobbyist in Washington told DTN. Hinson is a strong candidate without significant political baggage, the lobbyist said, but added that "farm country feelings about what's going on are not positive right now."

REP. DERRICK VAN ORDEN VS. REBECCA COOKE -- WISCONSIN'S 3RD DISTRICT

Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden faces Democrat Rebecca Cooke, who grew up on a dairy farm, in Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District, which includes Eau Claire and La Crosse.

Van Orden is one of six House Agriculture Committee members seeking reelection in races rated as toss-ups. Six committee members are also leaving Congress because of retirements or primary-election defeats.

The Trump administration has made a visible effort to support Van Orden. Trump visited the Wisconsin district in June, and seven other Cabinet members have appeared at campaign events or conducted site tours in the district, including Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins.

The navy veteran has emphasized support for new and beginning farmers, including veterans beginning farm operations.

"I would say Van Orden might be the slight underdog at this point," Covey said, noting how narrowly the race was decided in 2024.

Cooke has built her campaign around working-class concerns, rural empowerment and the role agriculture plays in sustaining small-town economies.

ZACH NUNN VS. SARAH TRONE GARRIOTT -- IOWA'S 3RD DISTRICT

Republican Rep. Zach Nunn has emerged as a leading voice in Iowa's congressional delegation on agricultural issues, serving on the Agriculture Committee for four years.

He recently authored the Banning External Entry of Foreign Beef (BEEF) Act following Trump's decision to allow additional Brazilian beef imports in August to ease consumer price. The legislation would suspend the import expansion and provide Congressional oversight on more trade decisions.

The Cook Political Report rates Iowa's 3rd and 1st congressional districts as "Lean Democrat" tickets.

Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott, an ordained Lutheran minister, used her appearances at the Iowa State Fair to highlight concerns about China, agricultural consolidation and foreign ownership of farmland. Nunn serves on the House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party.

She has matched and at times surpassed Nunn in fundraising in a historically Republican district. Federal Election Commission filings through June 30 showed Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott raising $5.29 million, compared with $4.87 million for Rep. Zach Nunn.

MARIANNETTE MILLER-MEEKS VS. CHRISTINA BOHANNAN -- IOWA'S 1ST DISTRICT

Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks faces Democrat Christina Bohannan for a third time in southeastern Iowa.

Their previous contests have grown increasingly competitive. Miller-Meeks won 53.4% of the vote in 2022 but narrowly prevailed in 2024 with 50.0% to Bohannan's 49.8%.

Miller-Meeks serves on the House Veterans' Affairs and Energy and Commerce committees and has support from the Iowa Farm Bureau PAC and Iowa Corn Growers Association.

She recently stood beside President Trump in the Oval Office to announce a proposed $15 billion steel facility in her district, one of the largest industrial investments announced in the United States in decades. The project is expected to create 1,750 jobs and open in 2030 following permitting approvals, according to the White House.

Bohannan has emphasized concerns about corporate consolidation and market power in agriculture, a message that mirrors themes promoted by some MAHA-aligned Republicans in Iowa.

Farm Action President Joe Maxwell, a fourth-generation farmer, said Bohannan's background as the granddaughter of family farmers who endured the 1980s farm crisis gives her an understanding of challenges involving the seed, fertilizer and meatpacking industries.

See the Cook Report's Ratings: https://www.cookpolitical.com/…

Jake Zajkowski can be reached at jake.zajkowski@dtn.com

Follow him on social platform X @jzajkow

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.