Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- The second half of this week will feature daily chances for rain showers in the western Corn Belt before shifting east for the weekend while heavy rain will hit eastern Texas and the western Delta. These are the weather factors driving the markets on Wednesday.

WET PATTERN RETURNS TO THE MIDWEST

A slow-moving front will provide some areas of heavier rainfall to the northwest Corn Belt Wednesday into Thursday with another system moving through on Friday. Precipitation is expected to linger in the eastern Midwest this weekend. While southern areas stay on the drier side into the end of the week, more rainfall is expected by the weekend. Overall, the pattern looks active next week as well, favorable for building soil moisture in northwest areas but unfavorable for those trying to get fieldwork done.

HEAVY RAIN TO HIT EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY

Upper air troughing will keep the pattern active across Oklahoma and Texas this week with daily chances for showers and storms, some of which could be severe. Eastern Texas could see heavy rain and flooding throughout the second half of this week. The Central Plains are still dealing with widespread drought from northern Kansas into Nebraska, and the developing corn, soybeans, and maturing wheat could use more rain, but it's expected to remain spotty into the end of the week.

RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS BENEFICIAL FOR DEVELOPING CROPS

More widespread showers may try to tag South Dakota into northern Nebraska during the middle of the week with a second round of widespread rain showers moving through later Thursday into Friday. The second round could benefit some of the drier soils throughout the Dakotas as the region is in need of more precipitation. Early next week could feature additional rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms which would be favorable for developing wheat.

PLANTING AND HARVEST DELAYS IN THE DELTA

Wet conditions continue across the Delta through the weekend, but more rain is not needed. The rainy pattern could continue into next week as well, which doesn't bode well for those trying to finish cotton planting or start wheat harvest. While the Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, the risk for any tropical systems entering the Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America) and impacting the Delta looks minimal over the next week.

SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY INTO NEXT WEEK FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Multiple disturbances are expected to pass through the Prairies into next week, providing some areas of heavier rain at times. The more active weather pattern is favorable for early growth as well as reducing the risks for wildfires. Slightly cooler air will favor eastern areas through the next few days while the warmest temperatures favor western areas into early next week.

ROUNDS OF SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK

A drier stretch of weather across most of the main growing areas will linger into Friday before a larger system develops late this week into the weekend across southern areas. The potential for heavy rain this weekend threatens the harvest pace, but wheat could use more rain for establishment.

SHOWERS GENERALLY FAVOR WESTERN BLACK SEA

The south and east could see more rainfall by Thursday and even into the weekend. Heavier and more consistent rain showers are needed to start making up some of the long-term deficits. Reproductive to filling wheat and developing corn will need more rain to get through the growing season, but the most consistent rain is still favoring western areas as a slow-moving system spins in western Russia through the weekend.

MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR WHEAT HARVEST IN CHINA

Wheat harvest will begin across the North China Plain this week and drier conditions through the end of the week should lead to a good start in the harvest. Showers will become more widespread by the weekend, but the return of a drier pattern looks possible again by early next week. Developing corn and soybeans could use more rainfall, but showers will likely not be consistent enough into next week. Some of the heaviest rain will favor southeast China going into early next week.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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