DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

The trough in the East will lift north into eastern Canada while the southeast ridge builds. A trough extends across the Southern Plains and will slowly advance east into the Mississippi Delta by the end of the week, providing areas of heavy rainfall. By the weekend, a ridge will attempt to strengthen across the West and the Great Plains.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge is not expected to remain dominant though and could eventually break down early next week.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Next week, the pattern could still remain active across the northern Corn Belt as systems from the West and southern Canada push east while ridging may remain dominant across the South. Cooler temperatures will develop across the northwest Corn Belt into the Great Lakes late this week before a slight warm up returns early next week. The Plains could see temperatures hover closer to normal.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...122 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW TUE...30 AT PETER SINKS, UT AND 16 MILES WEST OF REDFEATHER LAKES, CO 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...MOBILE, AL 2.38 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

The trough in the East will lift north into eastern Canada while the southeast ridge builds. A trough extends across the Southern Plains and will slowly advance east into the Mississippi Delta by the end of the week, providing areas of heavy rainfall. By the weekend, a ridge will attempt to strengthen across the West and the Great Plains. The ridge is not expected to remain dominant though and could eventually break down early next week.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Next week, the pattern could still remain active across the northern Corn Belt as systems from the West and southern Canada push east while ridging may remain dominant across the South. Cooler temperatures will develop across the northwest Corn Belt into the Great Lakes late this week before a slight warm up returns early next week. The Plains could see temperatures hover closer to normal.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): More widespread showers may try to tag South Dakota into northern Nebraska during the middle of the week with a second round of widespread rain showers moving through later Thursday into Friday. The second round could benefit some of the drier soils throughout the Dakotas as the region is in need of more precipitation. Early next week could feature additional rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms which would be favorable for developing wheat.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Upper-air troughing will keep the pattern active across Oklahoma and Texas this week with daily chances for showers and storms, some of which could be severe. Eastern Texas could see heavy rain and flooding throughout the second half of this week. The Central Plains are still dealing with widespread drought from northern Kansas into Nebraska, and the developing corn, soybeans, and maturing wheat could use more rain but it's expected to remain spotty into the end of the week.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A slow-moving front will provide some areas of heavier rainfall to the northwest Corn Belt Wednesday into Thursday with another system moving through on Friday. Precipitation is expected to linger in the eastern Midwest this weekend. While southern areas stay on the drier side into the end of the week, more rainfall is expected by the weekend. Overall, the pattern looks active next week as well, favorable for building soil moisture in northwest areas but unfavorable for those trying to get fieldwork done.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Wet conditions continue across the Delta through the weekend but more rain is not needed. The rainy pattern could continue into next week as well, which doesn't bode well for those trying to finish cotton planting or start wheat harvest.

While the Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, the risk for any tropical systems entering the Gulf of America and impacting the Delta looks minimal over the next week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Multiple disturbances are expected to pass through the Prairies into next week, providing some areas of heavier rain at times. The more active weather pattern is favorable for early growth as well as reducing the risks for wildfires. Slightly cooler air will favor eastern areas through the next few days while the warmest temperatures favor western areas into early next week.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A drier stretch of weather across most of the main growing areas starts on Tuesday and is expected to linger into Friday before a larger system develops late this week into the weekend across southern areas.

The potential for heavy rain this weekend threatens the harvest pace but wheat could use more rain for establishment.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): High pressure will keep conditions dry through much of the week, allowing for corn and soybean harvest to continue without precipitation disruptions. As winter wheat continues to be planted, it could use more rain, which will come by the end of the week. A storm system will form across northern Argentina Friday and continue through Saturday, providing some areas of heavy rain. While the late-week rain will be beneficial for planted wheat, it will likely slow down corn and soybean harvest for a few days.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A front will move through eastern Europe Thursday, providing spotty showers. Southern areas of Europe will remain relatively dry this week but maturing wheat should be stable given the recent rainfall. More precipitation would be beneficial next week for the wheat, but this could be spotty.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): The south and east could see more rainfall by Thursday and even into the weekend. Heavier and more consistent rain showers are needed to start making up some of the long-term deficits. Reproductive to filling wheat and developing corn will need more rain to get through the growing season, but the most consistent rain is still favoring western areas as a slow-moving system spins in western Russia through the weekend.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A slow-moving low pressure system spinning off the southeast coast of Australia will provide some showers to coastal areas throughout the week, but areas farther inland could be on the drier side, which would harm winter wheat and canola establishment. By early next week, a storm system tracking across southern Australia could lead to better chances for widespread showers in the southeast.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Wheat harvest will begin across the North China Plain this week and drier conditions through the end of the week should lead to a good start in the harvest. Showers will become more widespread by the weekend, but the return of a drier pattern looks possible again by early next week. Developing corn and soybeans could use more rainfall, but showers will likely not be consistent enough into next week. Some of the heaviest rain will favor southeast China going into early next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal south and below normal north Wednesday-Saturday, near normal Sunday.

East: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday, near normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers, south. Temperatures near to above normal north and below normal south.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal north and below normal south Wednesday-Thursday, near normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Scattered showers south Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, near to below normal northwest and near normal south Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, near normal Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Scattered showers southwest Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal south and above normal north Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday.

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