Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Some improving conditions in parts of the Midwest and Northern Plains, and some moderate-to-heavy rains in the Gulf Coast states, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

SOME IMPROVEMENT IN MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for shower and rain threats during the next five days to appear limited in coverage. Temperatures continue generally above normal for a few more days before cooler weather moves in. This contributes to some improvement in conditions for planting in fields that are not extremely wet at this time. The six- to 10-day rainfall is most likely in the northwest, possibly in the northeast and extreme south, but other areas might stay drier. Planting delays are likely to continue, but some fields should show improvement.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, temperatures for most areas today and Friday will be above normal. Light-to-moderate showers develop in the west and spread east Friday and Saturday, followed by much cooler weather. This does not look to be a big rain event and some areas may actually stay drier. These are improving conditions for planting corn and soybeans, and favorable conditions for spring wheat.

WET CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Central and Southern Plains, wet weather and conditions will increase disease pressure on developing wheat. Quality issues can be expected. Wet conditions will affect the early harvest. Wet weather and wet conditions will continue to delay and disrupt planting of corn, soybeans and sorghum. Lower temperatures return to the region during the six- to 10-day period, possibly much cooler. Today, a slow-moving low pressure system is expected to lead to heavy rains and threats of flash flooding in parts of Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and Arkansas.

HEAVY RAINS FOR SOUTHEAST U.S.

It appears increasingly likely that heavy rains will move into the southeast U.S. during the five-day day period and linger into the six- to 10-day period. This will end the recent stress caused by early season hot/dry weather. It may mean local flooding.

SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR CANADA'S PRAIRIES

For the Canadian Prairies, the heaviest rainfall potential during the next one to three days appears to be over central Alberta, northwest and southeast Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Southern Alberta, southwest and central Saskatchewan may see only light showers during this period. Rain is needed in most areas to support favorable development of spring wheat and canola. Some might benefit from this rainfall, but it may be only limited relief in some areas.

FAVORABLE BRAZIL HARVEST TREND

There are no significant concerns for filling and maturing second-crop corn in Mato Grosso and Goias in Brazil. Recent rain in Parana may slow the harvest of second-crop corn and the planting of winter wheat in that area. However, it looks drier in this area, as well, during the next seven days.

HOT, DRY IN BLACK SEA REGION

In the Black Sea region, there are mostly favorable conditions for crops in western Ukraine due to generous May rainfall and no significant hot weather. Showers have recently helped improve conditions in southern and eastern Ukraine and southern Russia, but due to very warm weather, improvement was limited. These areas look to be drier and warmer than normal during the next 10 days. A variable temperature pattern with added rain will favor spring wheat in northern Kazakhstan and southern Siberia during this period.

MIXED OUTLOOK FOR AUSTRALIA

The eastern wheat areas of Australia have recently had some light rain, but should be drier during the next seven days. The western wheat areas are expected to see episodes of showers and rain during the next five to seven days. Rainfall may become heavy. Conditions are improving for late planting and early developing winter wheat in the area.

MOSTLY FAVORABLE FOR NORTH CHINA

In North China, it's a mostly favorable weather pattern for development of early planted corn and soybeans with some periodic delays to seasonal fieldwork due to wet and cool conditions at times.

RAIN IN CENTRAL CHINA

Central China saw heavy rain and thunderstorms move into south and central areas during the past 24 hours. This might favor late-filling wheat and developing summer crops. It would be unfavorable for mature rapeseed and early harvesting and it would delay planting of summer crops.

MONSOON UPDATE IN INDIA

As of June 6, the Indian Met Department showed the leading edge of the monsoon over southern of Sri Lanka. This is running at least 10 days late. Satellite pictures have shown a significant decrease in coverage of rains across the Bay of Bengal during the past two days while the activity continues in the southern Arabian Sea.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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