DTN Closing Livestock Comments

GENERAL COMMENTS: The physical movement of animals is at a total standstill across broad swaths of cattle country, where no travel is advised on highways (most of South Dakota) or where roads are flooding and bridges have washed out (areas of Nebraska). Price levels for cash cattle will be benchmarked against the light business from before the storm: $127 live/$204 dressed. According to the closing report, the national hog base is $0.89 higher ($44-$53, weighted average $50.44). Corn futures settled higher by 3 to 4 cents, bouncing back inside the market's long-term sideways trading range. The stock market closed fractionally lower, off 2 points in the S&P 500.

LIVE CATTLE: Live futures posted solid gains Thursday, up $1.025 in the June contract, for instance, but this bounce hasn't been enough to lift the chart into a re-test of last week's high ($121.100 in the June). Estimated daily slaughter was relatively light at 99,000. Beef cut-outs: lower, off $0.52 (select, $218.76) to $0.54 (choice, $227.70) with light-to-moderate demand and moderate offerings (118 total load count of cuts, trimmings, and grinds).

FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady to $1 lower. The early light volley of Northern business this week took place at $127 live/$204 dressed. Southern business has yet to materialize.

FEEDER CATTLE: Feeder cattle futures (with the exception of the dwindling March contract) all followed along with the upward direction of other livestock futures markets Thursday, although with less enthusiasm: up $0.275 to $0.725. Physical movements of calves to sale barns is effectively impossible across most of the Plains Thursday, so that limits how much cash market information the futures markets can use for reference. CME cash feeder index for 03/13: $138.39, off $0.69.

LEAN HOGS: Have you ever tried to stop a pig once it gets its head down and starts running? The lean hog futures market seems to be on a similarly unstoppable path, up another $2.70 in the June contract, on top of the $5.305 it's gained since a week ago. The session ended near the highs of the day, suggesting there may still be more buying interest (or short-covering interest) at these price levels when things open up again Friday. Anecdotally, there is also eager demand to get as many market hogs as possible ready for the anticipated export market this summer and fall. Carcass value closed significantly higher again. Pork cut-out: $68.80, up $0.95 (hams up $1.12 to $55.29, bellies up $1.31 to $124.17). CME cash lean index for 03/12: $53.12, up $0.74 (DTN Projected lean index for 03/13: $54.13, up $1.01).

FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to $1 higher. Bids are expected to remain strong as long as the trend continues.

Elaine Kub can be reached at elaine@masteringthegrainmarkets.com

(CZ)

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