DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 1/2 cent in the December contract and up 1/4 cent in the July. Soybeans were up 5 1/4 cents in the January contract and up 4 3/4 cents in the July. Wheat closed down 1 cent in the December Kansas City contract, up 2 1/2 cents in December Chicago, and down 1 1/4 cents in the December Minneapolis contract.

The December U.S. dollar index is up 0.18 at 96.84. December gold is up $4.20 at $1,214.30 while December silver is up 21 cents and December copper is up $0.0525. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 210 points at 25,290. December crude oil is up $0.24 at $56.49. December heating oil is down $0.0210 while December RBOB gasoline is down $0.0027 and December natural gas is down $0.815.

Corn:

December corn ended up 1/2 cent at $3.67 1/2 Thursday, encouraged by a higher day for soybeans and ongoing reports of the U.S. and China talking trade ahead of the G-20 meeting in Buenos Aires. Thursday's weather map was clear for most of the Corn Belt but had a mix of snow and ice falling from Illinois eastward to the Atlantic coast. Aside from Thursday's wintry mix, the forecast remains mostly dry for the week ahead, favorable for finishing up harvest. On the demand side, the Energy Department said last week's ethanol production was down slightly from the previous week to 1.067 million barrels per day while ethanol inventory increased from 23.2 to 23.5 million barrels. Meanwhile, crop conditions in Brazil are off to a good start with more rain in this week's forecast, while Argentina is still trying to dry out from last week's heavy rains. With traders getting more comfortable with USDA's corn harvest estimate, trading has been quiet, but the trend in corn remains gradually up. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.34 Wednesday, well above its September low of $3.00 and priced 33 cents below the December contract. In outside markets, the December U.S. dollar index is up 0.18 with British Prime Minister May struggling to win support for her Brexit deal.

Soybeans:

January soybeans traded up 14 cents earlier in the session as reports keep coming that the U.S. and China are actively discussing trade, but nothing substantial is happening yet and the January contract finished up 5 1/4 cents at $8.88 3/4. With so much at stake for soybean prices, this up and down game based on the latest whispers may become more common until a decision is actually reached. This level of uncertainty in the current environment makes it more difficult than usual to assess the soybean market, but it is fair to say that until China starts buying U.S. soybeans again, the fundamental outlook remains bearish. Aside from China, here in the U.S., soybean harvest has better harvest weather in the central and western Midwest, but the Southern Plains remains difficult territory and the eastern Midwest is getting snow and ice on Thursday. The National Oilseed Processors Association estimated 172.35 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in October, up 5% from a year ago and more than expected. South American weather remains generally favorable with Argentina still trying to dry out from last week's excessive rain. In spite of all the uncertainty over trade, the trend in soybeans remains sideways. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.92 Wednesday, priced $0.92 below the January contract and still well above the September low of $7.12.

Wheat:

March Kansas City wheat ended down a penny at $5.03 1/4, stretching to another new low for the year as noncommercials are likely feeling pressure to lighten their net long positions. This is a time of year when not a lot is happening to get traders' attention, and it doesn't help U.S. competitiveness for the U.S. dollar index to keep pushing to new highs as it did on Monday. After a tough planting season, it seems safe to say that not all the expected winter wheat will get planted in 2018, and, while that may help keep next year's all-wheat crop near or below 2 billion bushels, the U.S. still has plenty of surplus carry and not much happening on the export front -- at least yet. USDA's next weekly report of export sales will be released early Friday and we continue to look for some indication of the U.S. being helped by this year's lower ending wheat stocks among the world's top exporters. As on Wednesday, March K.C. wheat eased to a new low for 2018 again on Thursday, but all three wheats' cash prices are holding sideways. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.52 Tuesday, 29 cents below the December contract and holding above support at $4.50. Similarly, DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.72 Wednesday.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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