DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn closed up 1/2 cent in the September contract and was up 1/2 cent in the December. Soybeans closed up 9 1/4 cents in the August and were up 9 1/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 6 cents in the September Chicago, down 1 1/2 cents in the September Kansas City, and was up 4 3/4 cents in the September Minneapolis. The September U.S. dollar index is down 0.09 at 94.45. August gold is down $2.30 at $1,223.40 while September silver is up 1 cent and September copper is down 0.0210. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 114 points at 25,413. September crude oil is down $0.95 at $68.66. September heating oil is down $0.0220 while September RBOB gasoline is down $0.0029 and September natural gas is up $0.019.

For the week:

September corn closed up 6 3/4 cents and December was up 7 1/4 cents. August soybeans were up 20 3/4 cents while the November was up 20 1/2 cents. September Chicago wheat was up 14 1/2 cents, September Kansas City wheat was up 24 cents, and September Minneapolis wheat was up 37 1/2 cents.

Corn:

December corn ended up a half-cent at $3.76 1/4 on light volume Friday and was also up 6 3/4 cents on the week. Friday's prices stalled below their five-week high without a strong argument yet to go higher. Not much rain showed on Friday's weather map and the best chances this weekend are for the southwestern Corn Belt while cool to moderate temperatures prevail over all but the most southern corn states. The rest of the seven-day forecast expects beneficial showers in the Eastern Corn Belt while the northern and northwestern corn states are mostly dry. On the demand side, USDA said 10.6 million bushels (270,000 mt) of U.S. corn were sold to unknown destinations for 2018-19. It was the first daily announcement for corn in over two weeks as new-crop sales are starting to get more attention. For now, the trend remains down for December corn with crop conditions in the largest producing states generally doing well. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.32 Thursday, just below its five-week high and 30 cents below the September contract. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is down 0.09, a mild response to news from the U.S. Commerce Department that real GDP was up 2.8% in the second quarter from a year ago, close to expectations and still supportive of the argument for gradual rate hikes ahead.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed up 9 1/4 cents at $8.85 1/4 Friday and were up 20 1/2 cents on the week, getting some benefit from this week's news that Europe would be buying more soybeans. While all purchases are welcome, European officials did not specify how much they would be buying and some increased buying was already expected from Europe, given Argentina's drought earlier in the year. China, of course, is the more important customer for soybeans, but there is no progress on that front yet. USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue's announcement of $12 billion of aid to farmers this week suggests the administration foresees a long battle with China ahead. As with corn, U.S. soybean crops are doing generally well with rain expected across the southern Midwest the next seven days. Mild temperatures should also be beneficial for crops setting pods. On the demand side, USDA said 5.7 million bushels (154,100 mt) of new-crop soybeans were sold to unknown destinations as someone took advantage of soybeans' lower prices. While crops are generally favorable, the trend remains down for soybeans. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.00 Thursday, up from its lowest price in over nine years and priced 62 cents below the August contract.

Wheat:

September Chicago wheat closed down 6 cents and September K.C. wheat was down 1 1/2 cents at $5.32 1/2, holding a gain of 24 cents this week, thanks to dry weather in Europe. Europe's December milling wheat ended slightly lower, at 199.75 euros per metric ton Friday (roughly $6.36/bushel), but held a 3% gain on the week and posted its highest weekly close in three years. Europe's forecast expects light showers the next six days, but will still be mostly dry. This week's Wheat Quality Council Spring Wheat Tour was an eye opener as the estimated yield of 41.1 bushels an acre was less than expected and less than the five-year average -- not what we would expect from a crop that USDA says is 79% good-to-excellent. The seven-day forecast is mostly dry from Michigan to the Pacific Northwest with Oregon's soft white wheat crop hit by drought and wildfires. In Canada, the seven-day forecast for southern Saskatchewan remains mostly dry. With global weather risks still active in 2018, the trends for all three U.S. wheats are up. DTN's National SRW Index closed at $5.08 Thursday, near its highest price in 2018 and 28 cents below the September contract. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $5.18, near its highest prices in 2018.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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