DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...119 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW SUN...31 AT STANLEY ID

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…BALTIMORE MD 2.76 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement today. The mean upper level trough position remains over the Midwest region for most of this period, although it does appear to weaken somewhat late in the period. This likely means near to mostly below normal temperatures will continue during this period. Rainfall chances will be highest near the bottom of trough and just to the east of the trough line. This puts the southern and southeastern Midwest areas and maybe Ohio and Michigan in a region that may see significant shower activity. Elsewhere in the Midwest it should be drier. The mean ridge position remains in the southwestern US during the first 2-3 days of the outlook period before trying to move a little more to the east later in the period. The far west position of the ridge allows for a chance for seasonal to below normal temperatures in the central/south plains crop belt during the early to middle part of the period before it turns somewhat hotter again later. Scattered thundershowers may linger in the areas, from the activity that begins later in the 5 day period, during the first couple days of the period before diminishing again later in the period. The northern plains region is mostly under a west to northwest flow aloft and should remain mostly dry during the outlook period, warm west and cooler east. The Delta should trend towards more activity and cooler temperatures during the period. The southeast may be warmer but also should see more scattered thundershower activity.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): No significant hot weather to impact reproductive crops during the next 7 days. Drier for much of this week, except far west and southwest areas. Soil moisture should support favorable development in the Midwest. Northern Missouri is still quite dry and needs rain prevent further declines in yields potential. There is a chance for some showers in this area during the week.

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT, CORN, SOYBEANS): Favorable soil moisture for developing corn and soybeans. Little rainfall during the next 7-10 days will deplete soil moisture however due to a lack of hot weather little crop stress is expected.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS/SORGHUM): Increasing shower activity and eventually cooler temperatures during this week should help to ease stress in key corn and soybean areas. Showers have developed in western areas during the night. The main central and east growing areas may not see significant rain occur until the Thursday to Saturday time period.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): No significant rain is being forecasted during the next 7 days. Although later this week showers may develop in the Panhandle.

Temperatures upper 90s to low 100s Monday, cooler Tuesday, low to upper 90s Wednesday through Sunday.

UKRAINE/SOUTH RUSSIA (CORN, SUNFLOWER, SUGARBEETS): Recent rain and less hot weather has helped ease stress to late reproductive and filling corn in the south and east Ukraine and south Russia but is unlikely to significantly improve prospects after the extremes of this summer. A more showery pattern would benefit filling sunflower more than corn at this time. Recent generous rains have improved prospects in key sugarbeet areas of west and north Ukraine and Belarus.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT, CANOLA): Showers remain fairly limited over southwest and central areas during the next 7 days. More activity north and east areas.

Temperatures turn cooler during the next 3 to 5 days, warmer again after that.

NORTH CHINA (CORN AND SOYBEANS): Thunderstorms far west and north areas during the weekend period. Drier and somewhat hotter elsewhere in the region. A weakening former tropical storm will bring some rain to the area early this week but significant rain likely occurs in a relatively narrow band.

CENTRAL CHINA (CORN, SOYBEANS, GROUNDUTS, COTTON: Fairly hot, mostly dry weather continued into Sunday. Increasing stress to reproductive and filling summer crops, especially central and south areas that are also too dry. A weakening tropical storm Ampil brought rain to eastern areas during the past

24 hours. Rain today mainly in Shandong and Hebei due to this feature and a cold front moving in from the west. Drier, hotter weather continues elsewhere in the region. The area may see some increase in shower activity during the week with mostly above normal temperatures.

INDIAN MONSOON: Moderate to heavy thunderstorms during the weekend period through much of the north and east-central India region. Less in west-central areas. The Monsoon will continue active in north and central interior locations during this week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mostly dry or with only a few light showers during the weekend period.

Temperatures averaged near to below normal.

East: Showers and thunderstorms, 0.50-1.50 inches and locally heavier, southeast Wisconsin, southwest Michigan, north and east Indiana, west Ohio and north Kentucky during the weekend period. Showers, 0.25-0.75 inch and locally heavier, elsewhere in central and east areas, drier west. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast...

West: Dry or with only isolated light showers favoring west and north areas today. Mostly dry tomorrow. Chance for a few light to moderate showers in central Minnesota and in central Nebraska during Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal today and Tuesday, below normal north and central areas and near normal south Wednesday.

Mostly dry Thursday and most of Friday. Light to moderate showers move through central and into eastern Nebraska during Friday night. Light to moderate showers and thundershowers favoring southern areas during Saturday.

Temperatures average below normal during this period.

East: Mostly dry today through Wednesday. Temperatures average most normal today, near normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers favoring east and south areas during Thursday. Mainly dry Friday and mostly of Saturday. Showers develop in the west and south areas Saturday night. Light to locally moderate showers during Sunday. Temperatures average below normal north and near normal south Thursday, below normal Friday and Saturday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal.

Rainfall near to above normal south-central and southeast, near to below normal elsewhere in the region.

Northern Plains (Spring Wheat, Corn, Soybeans, livestock)

Summary: A few light showers with isolated heavier central and east areas during the weekend period. Temperatures averaged above normal west and below normal east Saturday, below normal west and near normal east Sunday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and early Tuesday. Chance for light showers with locally heavier favoring eastern and southern areas later Tuesday through early Wednesday. Drier later Wednesday. Temperatures mostly below normal today and Tuesday, below to well below normal Wednesday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers far west and southwest areas Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures below normal Thursday and Friday, near normal far west and below normal otherwise Saturday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal west, near to below normal east. Rainfall below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry or with only a few light showers during the daytime hours of Sunday. Scattered showers, 0.10-0.75 inch and isolated heavier, occurred in western Kansas, southwest Nebraska and southeast Colorado overnight.

Temperatures averaged near to below normal north-central, northeast and east-central areas during the weekend period. Temperatures above to well above normal west and south areas.

Forecast: A few to scattered thundershowers in west Kansas and east Colorado today and again tonight. Mainly dry elsewhere in the region during this time.

Dry or with only a few light showers favoring west and north areas during Tuesday. Scattered light to locally moderate showers favoring north and west-central areas Wednesday or Wednesday night. Temperatures below normal north and central areas and near to above normal south today and Tuesday, below normal north, near normal central and above normal south Wednesday.

Episodes of showers and thunderstorms northern and central areas Thursday through Saturday. Rainfall moderate to heavy. Thundershowers may reach to the northern Texas Panhandle and northern Oklahoma later in this period. Mainly dry or with only isolated activity to the south. Temperatures mostly below normal north and central areas, near to above normal south.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period, cooler early and mid period, warmer late period. Rainfall near to above normal east, near to below normal west and south.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(SK)

Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.