DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 1/4 cent in the March contract and unchanged in the December. Soybeans were down 10 3/4 cents in the March contract and down 6 3/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 3/4 cent in the March Chicago contract, down 1/4 cent in the March Kansas City and up 4 1/2 cents in the March Minneapolis contract.

The March U.S. dollar index is down 0.39 at 88.57. April gold is up $5.30 at $1,348.40 while March silver is down 8 cents and March copper is up $0.0125. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 47 points at 26,196. March crude oil is up $0.76 at $65.49. March heating oil is up $0.0170 while March RBOB gasoline is down $0.0042 and March natural gas is down $0.152.

Corn:

March corn ended up 1/4 cent at $3.61 3/4, ignoring much of the early selling that hit soybeans and wheat with help from Thursday's lower U.S. dollar. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales of corn totaled 72.9 million bushels (mb), higher than a week ago, thanks to big purchases from unknown, Mexico, and Japan. Corn exports totaled 41.2 mb, a new marketing year high for corn, but total corn shipments are down 30% in 2017-18 from a year ago -- still on a bearish pace. Crop conditions in central Argentina remain a modest concern with temperatures in the 90s, and the latest seven-day forecast still looking mostly dry. Fundamentally, there is plenty of corn in storage, but March corn is trading at the upper end of its three-month range with help from domestic demand and steadily rising cash corn prices. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.30 Wednesday, priced 31 cents below the March contract and at its highest price in five months. In outside markets, the March U.S. dollar index is down 0.39, a delayed sell-off after Wednesday's decision from the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged.

Soybeans:

March soybeans fell 10 3/4 cents to $9.85 Thursday, pressured by USDA's report that last week's soybean export sales hit a new marketing year low of 13.2 mb. Soybean shipments were a more normal 44.8 mb, but total soybean shipments were still down 14% in 2017-18 from a year ago. While soybean sales were down, it was interesting that export sales of soybean meal and bean oil hit new marketing year highs last week. China has been able to avoid U.S. soybeans with another big crop on the way from Brazil, but at least meal sales have picked up to Philippines, Mexico, Canada and Colombia. Market clues are mixed, but the fundamental outlook continues to lean bearish for soybeans with Brazil just starting to harvest what is expected to be a 4.0 billion bushel (bb) crop. Argentina remains a concern with temperatures in the 90s sapping soil moisture and likely trimming back yields. Technically, the trend in March soybeans remains broadly sideways with no strong commitment yet in either direction. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.27 Wednesday, down from its highest in over a month and priced 68 cents below the March contract.

Wheat:

March Chicago wheat was down 3/4 cent at $4.51, surviving an early selling attempt with a small loss that allowed prices to stay near the upper end of their three-month range with help from Thursday's lower U.S. dollar. Similarly, March Kansas City wheat was lower earlier in the session, but ended the day with just a quarter-cent loss at $4.67. Thursday's weather map brought beneficial precipitation to southern Illinois and Indiana with more expected in the eastern Midwest the next seven days. The southwestern U.S. Plains however, continues to get drier with almost no precipitation expected in the week ahead. While the trend in both winter wheat contracts is currently up, and weather conditions remain largely dry, traders may be cautious about pushing prices higher this early in the season until more is known about the next winter crop. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.23 Wednesday, priced 29 cents below the March contract and down from its highest price in five months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.26, down from its highest price in six months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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