DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Most retail fertilizer prices continued to shift lower the third week of April 2023, according to retailers tracked by DTN. However, for the first time in several months, multiple fertilizers were slightly higher.

One fertilizer achieved a significant milestone that has not been seen in about a year and a half.

Six of the eight major fertilizer prices were lower compared to last month, although none fell a considerable amount. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

These six fertilizers were all just slightly lower compared to last month. Potash had an average price of $643 per ton, urea $626/ton, 10-34-0 $740/ton, anhydrous $995/ton, UAN28 $423/ton and UAN32 $507/ton.

Multiple fertilizers were higher in price for the first time since the fourth week of November 2022. DAP and MAP were both up just slightly with DAP having an average price of $826/ton while MAP is at $812/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was $0.68/lb.N, anhydrous $0.61/lb.N, UAN28 $0.76/lb.N and UAN32 $0.79/lb.N.

The notable milestone in last week's prices was set by anhydrous, with an average price of $995/ton. This marks the first time the nitrogen fertilizer has been under $1,000/ton since the fourth week of October 2021 when the price was at $982/ton.

Anhydrous had a four-digit price for 77 consecutive weeks or just short of 20 straight months. The highest price the fertilizer saw during this time was $1,534/ton for the third and fourth week of April 2022.

While the sub-$1,000/ton anhydrous price is still historically expensive, the fact anhydrous, as well as other fertilizers' prices, fell so much in the first quarter of 2023 was striking. I interviewed several fertilizer analysts in late November and early December of 2022 and not a single one thought that by planting time in spring 2023 retail fertilizer prices would be 18% to 35% less expensive from last year at this same time.

A recent Twitter thread between farmers discussed how sitting on your hands and doing nothing in terms of locking in fertilizer prices this winter turned out to be the correct move to obtain lower-priced fertilizer prices. Some debate ensued -- as it always does on social media.

All fertilizers are now double digits lower compared to one year ago. 10-34-0 is 18% less expensive, DAP is 21% lower, MAP is 25% less expensive, potash is 27% lower, UAN32 is 31% less expensive, UAN28 is 33% lower, anhydrous is 35% less expensive and urea is 38% lower compared to a year prior.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

Fertilizer prices continue to weaken, but they may be near the bottom, according to a recent report from CoBank. You can read it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Apr 18-22 2022	1050	1079	879	1012
May 16-20 2022	1059	1083	878	993
Jun 13-Jun 17 2022	1046	1074	879	961
Jul 11-15 2022	1030	1052	885	861
Aug 8-12 2022	982	1032	881	812
Sep 5-9 2022	952	1009	878	800
Oct 3-7 2022	934	997	869	826
Oct 31-Nov 4 2022	930	981	857	826
Nov 28-Dec 2 2022	926	960	831	795
Dec 26-Dec 30 2022	885	891	765	751
Jan 23-Jan 27 2023	855	865	714	708
Feb 20-Feb 24 2023	836	834	673	666
Mar 20-Mar 24 2023	821	812	645	627
Apr 17-21 2023	826	812	643	626
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Apr 18-22 2022	906	1534	631	730
May 16-20 2022	906	1529	634	731
Jun 13-Jun 17 2022	905	1516	630	730
Jul 11-15 2022	904	1449	606	701
Aug 8-12 2022	881	1365	578	678
Sep 5-9 2022	866	1357	579	658
Oct 3-7 2022	813	1390	565	652
Oct 31-Nov 4 2022	759	1426	583	680
Nov 28-Dec 2 2022	753	1416	583	681
Dec 26-Dec 30 2022	751	1325	573	679
Jan 23-Jan 27 2023	754	1237	523	630
Feb 20-Feb 24 2023	741	1124	470	554
Mar 20-Mar 24 2023	740	1036	429	514
Apr 17-21 2023	740	995	423	507

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.