Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Recent drought-reducing rainfall across the southern U.S., more cold air causing frosts this week as well as snow in the Central Plains, and dryness in Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

MORE COLD AIR MOVING INTO MIDWEST, FROSTS POSSIBLE

More scattered showers and cold air will move through the Midwest this week, targeting southern areas with the heaviest precipitation on Tuesday. Additional frosts and freezes may occur later this week, but will need the skies to be clear and winds to be calm in which to do so. Models currently have poor conditions for frost, but those may change later this week. The region will remain active with smaller storm systems continuing to push through the region Friday, this weekend, and next week. Overall, this should produce good conditions for emergence and early growth for crops in the ground, but may cause issues for those trying to plant.

HEAVY SNOW, COLD AIR FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front moving through the Central and Southern Plains will bring about more widespread precipitation for Tuesday and Wednesday, including some moderate precipitation potential for the driest areas in Nebraska and Kansas, but will also be cold enough for snow in Colorado and adjacent areas in Nebraska and Kansas. Amounts could be very heavy, which would be damaging for winter wheat or any emerging corn and soybeans. Cold temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday could also cause damage. Temperatures will moderate for later this week and next week. Additional chances for showers will flow through the region this weekend and next week, though coverage looks sparse and amounts do not look heavy like the region needs for its deep drought.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH COLD IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Pockets of isolated showers will be possible for the Northern Plains into next week. Overall though, conditions should be dry enough for fieldwork. Temperatures are not favorable this week with some frosts and freezes being fairly widespread. A western ridge pressing into the area could bring temperatures up this weekend into next week. Regardless, prospects for good planting conditions are increasing as we get deeper into May.

COLD AIR SLOWLY EASING IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A strong cold front moved through the Canadian Prairies on Sunday and has brought in another round of very cold air with frosts and freezes for the next few days, especially east. Western areas will start to warm up by the end of the week, though some cold may linger in the east into next week. Overall, this is leading to more delays in spring planting. Even though precipitation has slowed down significantly, soil moisture is very good in most areas and will help for early growth once the crop is planted.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EASING DROUGHT IN DELTA

Recent heavy rain has been improving drought conditions in the Delta, but large deficits remain. A front and system moving along it will produce more rain and some severe chances on Tuesday and Wednesday. Additional chances will be possible this weekend and next week, especially across the north. This should continue to turn the momentum toward diminishing drought, though this will be a long process even if the rain continues.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH BRAZIL LATER THIS WEEK, LIMITED SHOWERS FOR CORN

Some rain fell over far southern Brazil over the weekend, but missed a lot of the safrinha corn areas in Parana. Some showers are possible from another front moving in on Thursday night through Saturday night. But those showers will be waning as the front moves into central Brazil, typical for this time of year. Hot and dry conditions are unfavorable for filling corn in most areas.

NORTHEASTERN EUROPE STILL DRY BUT SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH

Scattered showers in western Europe are spreading eastward this week, getting some needed rain into the dry northeast. Another system will move into the west on Friday, spreading showers eastward this weekend and especially next week. Overall, conditions are favorable for wheat on most of the continent or improving like areas in the northeast. Though showers may disrupt spring planting a bit, the overall effect is positive.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Periods of showers continue in the Black Sea region over the next couple of weeks. Rains are coming at a pace that is favorable for most areas, though western portions of Ukraine and Belarus could use more rain. They seem to be the target of more of the systems coming out of Europe.

BUILDING EL NINO UNFAVORABLE FOR AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers moved across southeastern Australia over the weekend and were heavier than forecast. However, deficits are still large and conditions are still dry, though some time was bought for the wheat and canola crops. A few more showers may hit Victoria on Wednesday, but drier conditions are still favored, producing overall poor conditions for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment. The developing El Nino in the Pacific has a correlation with poor winter crops in Australia.

SOME DRYNESS CONCERNS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CHINA

The North China Plain and the northeast continue to be drier, which may be favorable for corn and soybean planting, but not for development of wheat. Very limited showers over the next 10-14 days is not favorable either. Canola areas in the south-central are in better shape from more consistent precipitation this spring, but those have been diminishing lately as well.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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