DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East and a trough in the West. The trough will send several impulses eastward this week. Another trough in western Canada will move into the West in a couple of days and push through the country late this week and weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Yet another trough will move into the West early next week and will likely push eastward later next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A front will be pushing through the country this weekend, ushering in a brief dry period and some colder air. Another system is likely to move into the middle of the country in the middle of next week with some warmer air and widespread precipitation.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...97 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW MON...11 AT 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF LUND, NV

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...HOUSTON, TX 0.64 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East and a trough in the West. The trough will send several impulses eastward this week. Another trough in western Canada will move into the West in a couple of days and push through the country late this week and weekend. Yet another trough will move into the West early next week and will likely push eastward later next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A front will be pushing through the country this weekend, ushering in a brief dry period and some colder air. Another system is likely to move into the middle of the country in the middle of next week with some warmer air and widespread precipitation.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Pockets of isolated showers will move through this week, exiting on Friday with some cold air to follow behind it for the weekend. The constant up-and-down temperatures are limiting the rise in soil temperature, which may have some additional cooler periods the rest of April and possibly into May as well. Drought in the west and south will surely take the precipitation coming with the variable conditions, however.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Several impulses will move through this week, creating areas of showers and thunderstorms. Dry areas in the west are the least likely to see precipitation, but may still happen for a few lucky spots. The last system will move through Friday into Saturday, and will be followed by some cooler air, but the active pattern will restart by the middle of next week again. Dryness continues to be a major issue for some winter wheat areas, but other areas are getting some good rainfall to improve drought and soil moisture for corn and soybean planting.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Multiple impulses and small systems will produce scattered showers throughout the week, ending with a sweeping cold front moving through on Friday and Saturday. Widespread precipitation and areas of heavy rain will increase soil moisture, but may make it difficult for planting and other fieldwork. Colder air will briefly move through behind the cold front this weekend into early next week, which may slow down thoughts of planting as well.

DELTA (TRANSPORTATION/SOYBEANS/COTTON): Drought continues to be a major issue in the region while planting increases. Fronts may bring through some periods of showers throughout the week, but drier conditions are still looking likely while temperatures are well above normal. A final front will move through on Saturday, bringing through some showers and a brief burst of cooler temperatures. The rainfall will likely not be enough to stave off the growing drought, which continues to produce poor conditions for early growth.

BRAZIL (CORN): A system will move into the south and west with scattered showers for midweek, but will quickly return to being isolated showers by the end of the week. Outside of Mato Grosso, which may have more consistent showers, much of the safrinha corn growing areas will be dealing with very limited rainfall this week. If rainfall will be more focused on fronts instead of wet season popup showers, as the forecast suggests, this would likely be beneficial for southern corn areas only, and less beneficial for central Brazil. That could be concerning for corn as it begins pollinating this week and into early May.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A system moved through the north with scattered showers over the weekend. Another will do move through the north with some heavy rain for Tuesday and Wednesday. Though the rainfall will be useful, it will only be for the shrinking portion of the crop that was planted late. Harvest continues to progress for early-planted corn and soybeans, and the rain may cause some delays and flooding issues.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): A system brought showers through western Europe over the weekend and continues showers near the Mediterranean through Wednesday. A couple of smaller systems will move through northern areas as well, but with limited showers. Most of the continent has favorable soil moisture for winter wheat and early corn planting. However, areas in the northeast have more limited soil moisture and are in need of some good rains. Multiple systems are in line to at least provide some chances over the next several weeks.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Periods of showers continue this week, though they will be more isolated than last week. Soil moisture has slowly been improving since the winter. Above-normal temperatures should help wheat develop at a regular pace.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Outside of a few isolated showers across the far south, it was dry this weekend, continuing to produce poor conditions for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment as that usually increases in April. Very little precipitation is in the forecast this week though, discouraging planting. A developing El Nino is not favorable for winter crops in Australia.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some heavy rain moved through south-central areas over the weekend, clipping canola areas with some good rainfall. Wheat areas on the North China Plain remained unfavorably drier. A couple of systems will favor south-central areas again this week. Corn and soybean planting should begin shortly, but areas in the northeast are still a little too cold, and in need of some rainfall.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, below normal Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, falling Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers east Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday.

Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures below normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Thursday, falling Friday, below normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Spotty showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Saturday, more consistent west. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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