DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...104 AT INDIO, CA

LOW TUE...24 BELOW ZERO AT BRIMSON, MN

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...CONCORD, NH 1.17 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough leaving the East and a massive ridge in the West spilling into the Plains. The ridge will be record-strong as it continues to spread eastward for the next few days. Troughs up in Canada will continue move eastward, but have little effect on the U.S. except for the Northeast until the ridge weakens this weekend. Doing so will allow systems to move along the border region through the end of March.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A front will move south through the country on Sunday and Monday. Limited showers will occur with it but it will send a brief wave of cooler air east of the Rockies. Temperatures will bounce right back up next week but the chaotic pattern continues with another system bringing a strong front through the country mid-late next week. That should produce scattered showers and another round of cooler air. Through all of this, the Southwest is likely to remain extremely warm.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Temperatures are rising and will be quite warm the rest of the week, melting the recent snow. A cold front will move through this weekend with limited showers and some cooler air, but the region will be on a rollercoaster ride of temperatures through the end of the month.

Fronts will move through, but with little precipitation is in the forecast.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Warmer air is building over the region and will be record warm late this week after some frost damage earlier this week. This weekend and next week, a couple of fronts will move through but with very little precipitation in the forecast. The recent frosts, followed by heat and dryness, will not be favorable for winter wheat conditions as a lot of areas dry out significantly. Drought continues to grow over the southwestern Plains, increasing stress for wheat, and being unfavorable for the start of planting as well.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A blast of arctic air is already moving out of the region, with a little batch of snow to welcome in the warmer air. Despite some cold, conditions for winter wheat are likely to be positive with all the recent rainfall and drought reduction. Several fronts will move through later this week, weekend, and next week, bringing a change temperatures. However, little precipitation is in the forecast.

DELTA (TRANSPORTATION/SOYBEANS/COTTON): Recent rainfall has done a good job at increasing soil moisture and reducing drought, as well as pumping up water levels on all area rivers. The increase in soil moisture should be a positive impact, though long-term drought still resides throughout most of the region. Drier weather this week will not be favorable for reducing the drought further. And if dry conditions continue next week as well, as currently forecast, the tendency for deeper drought may continue.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue across central Brazil throughout the week, favorable for safrinha corn, but may thin out this weekend into next week, which would not be. Dryness over the south has been unfavorable for filling corn and soybeans there. A front moved in on Tuesday with scattered showers that last on Wednesday as well. More rain will be needed there as it is getting much drier. There is limited opportunity for more rainfall on the current forecast.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front finally brought some heavy rain to southern areas on Monday and Tuesday, which will help to stabilize crop conditions. Another front will do something similar for Friday through the weekend with potential for another early next week. Though the rainfall appears to be favorable, much of the crop is either in the midst of harvest, as is the early-planted corn, or heading toward maturity, such as early-planted soybeans. So the rainfall is only somewhat helpful.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers fell in central Europe earlier this week, but are followed by drier conditions through the weekend. A chance for a system will drop into eastern areas next week, which would be favorable. With warmer temperatures bringing winter wheat out of dormancy, some of the crop is doing so in fairly dry conditions, especially in the northeast.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Patchy dryness still exists in the region as wheat comes out of dormancy in mixed condition. More precipitation would be preferred, but very little is in the forecast outside of southwestern Russia that is forecast to get some patchy light rainfall this week. Showers may be a little more widespread next week, but continue to be light.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): A system continues to produce scattered showers for eastern Australia into Thursday. Not all areas are forecast to get some rainfall, but that isn't necessarily favorable as cotton and sorghum continue to mature and harvest begins in some areas. The moisture will be important for the coming winter wheat crop, however, which starts to be planted in April.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers will continue over south-central China through at least this weekend, favorable for some winter wheat and especially canola areas that are coming out of dormancy. Wheat on the North China Plain have good soil moisture, but precipitation has been limited this winter. More rain would be favorable sooner rather than later.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures well below normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures well below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, well above normal Thursday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

East: Isolated showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures rising above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, well above normal Thursday-Saturday, above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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