DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A ridge extends across Central with a trough entering the Southwest. Another trough is located in the Gulf of Alaska. The ridge will keep temperatures above-average through the weekend but the trough in the Southwest will eventually break through the ridge and move across the Southern Plains and Southeast.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

By late this weekend, the trough from the Gulf of Alaska will dig into the West Coast before expanding across much of the West early next week while a ridge expands in the East.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but develop systems differently. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move across the southern half of the country this weekend with areas of heavier rain and possibly some snow on the northern edge, particularly in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Another storm will move through the West late this weekend before entering the north-central U.S. towards the middle of next week. Another system may move through later next week or next weekend.

Temperatures will generally be mild or cool in the West and warm in the Central and East, though cooler temperatures could arrive in the Plains by the end of next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...86 AT 18 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF OCHOPEE, FL AND 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LINN, TX AND FALFURRIAS, TX

LOW WED...8 BELOW ZERO AT 3 MILES WEST OF INDUS, MN

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...CHATTANOOGA, TN 0.60 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A ridge extends across Central with a trough entering the Southwest. Another trough is located in the Gulf of Alaska. The ridge will keep temperatures above average through the weekend but the trough in the Southwest will eventually break through the ridge and move across the Southern Plains and Southeast. By late this weekend, the trough from the Gulf of Alaska will dig into the West Coast before expanding across much of the West early next week while a ridge expands in the East.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but develop systems differently. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move across the southern half of the country this weekend with areas of heavier rain and possibly some snow on the northern edge, particularly in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Another storm will move through the West late this weekend before entering the north-central U.S. towards the middle of next week. Another system may move through later next week or next weekend.

Temperatures will generally be mild or cool in the West and warm in the Central and East, though cooler temperatures could arrive in the Plains by the end of next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Warm air has flooded the region and is forecast to continue into the middle of next week. Mostly dry conditions are expected throughout the rest of this week. Snow cover is basically gone except in the far northeast and precipitation deficits are slowly building ahead of spring. There is potential for bigger storms, especially during the second half of next week. The region will take all the precipitation it can get, even if it comes as snow. Temperatures could also cool off late next week between the storms.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Above-normal temperatures are forecast to continue through next week. Soil moisture maps are not particularly promising though, and many dry and drought spots exist. Though the threat for cold is over for a while, dryness and drought may threaten wheat going into spring. However, the pattern is becoming more active and there are at least some chances for precipitation over the next couple of weeks. Models are mixed on the impact, but will likely be sporadic and not widespread. Some areas may see favorable precipitation while others are missed. The south is favored by a system this weekend.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): The threat for arctic cold has ended for a while as temperatures trend warmer throughout the region, but snowpack in the east could keep temperatures a bit closer to average. However, the weather pattern will become more active and the chance for bigger storms is elevated for next week. Southern areas are favored by a system this weekend while northern areas could see multiple rounds of precipitation next week.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Rising temperatures are helping to break ice up on the rivers and melt the remaining snow and ice in the Midwest. That will eventually make it through the Mississippi River system as well. But water levels are low and will need a more active weather pattern to bring them up permanently. Some heavier rain will be possible in the Delta this weekend, but showers look more hit or miss going into next week, mainly favoring the Central Mississippi Valley.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Heavy rain has been falling in central Brazil lately, which has been favorable for the last remaining filling soybeans, but has been a little troublesome for transport and fieldwork as producers switch from soybeans to safrinha corn. Heavier rain continues through the end of this week but will thin out this weekend into early next week. The country still needs these showers to produce a lot of rain since most of the country is behind and soil moisture is rated as low in many areas for this time of year.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers will continue into the upcoming weekend, with the focus on central and northern areas while drier areas in the south will have less precipitation. However, the active weather situation is forecast to continue next week as well with widespread showers possibly developing across southern areas. Though the trend has been for worsening soil moisture and crop conditions over the last six weeks or so, some improvements will be made. That is too late for some of the corn and soybean crops that are more advanced, though.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Europe has been in an active weather pattern for a long time and the frequent precipitation has favored winter wheat in almost all areas of the continent. The active weather pattern continues through next week. The situation is very favorable for winter crops as well as prepping soils for spring crops, a condition that extends south into northern Africa for the first time in years as well.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): The risk for winterkill on winter wheat will dissipate for now as warmer temperatures are favored into next week, although northern areas could see a few surges of cooler air. Systems have become more frequent and are easing some of the precipitation deficits in the region as well as providing more protective snow cover. More systems are forecast to bring meaningful precipitation for this weekend and next week, with rain in the south and snow in the north. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and the coming precipitation should be helpful before the wheat awakens from dormancy in another month or two.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Dryness is still widespread across the country, but remnants of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell provided pockets of heavier rain to Western Australia earlier this week. The remnants of Mitchell will continue to move through southern and eastern areas of the country the rest of this week, helping to ease some of the stress as well. Crop conditions are still overall poor for cotton and sorghum, but may be improving. Next week, showers look limited in the west with isolated showers in the south and east.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Winter wheat and canola are in dormancy in largely good condition, but precipitation has been limited over the last couple of months, especially across southeast China. Shower chances are more frequent over the next couple of weeks, but with low amounts. The region will need much more before wheat and canola awaken from dormancy in the next month or two.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers south Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Monday.

East: Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers south Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday-Friday, above normal Saturday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures above to well above normal Tuesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Thursday. Scattered showers south Friday-Saturday.

Isolated showers southeast Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers north Tuesday-Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday, near to below normal north and above normal south Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Thursday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Monday.

Temperatures near normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Monday.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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