DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge moving into the Central with several disturbances out in the West, Pacific, and Canada. Though the ridge will try to keep temperatures up in most areas this week, it is not a strong one and will let through all the disturbances.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A bigger trough is forecast in the West this weekend, which will likely send multiple pieces of energy eastward next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but develop systems differently. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move across the middle of the country this weekend with areas of heavier rain and possibly some snow on the northern edge, particularly in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Another storm will move through the West this weekend and then through the rest of the country early next week. Models are mixed on the impacts from this system, but generally agree on a northern focus.

Another system may move through later next week. Temperatures will generally be mild or cool in the West and warm in the Central and East, though systems passing through could change that forecast.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...90 AT 6 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GLAMIS, CA

LOW SUN...36 BELOW ZERO AT WATERTOWN, NY

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...EUGENE, OR 1.20 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge moving into the Central with several disturbances out in the West, Pacific, and Canada. Though the ridge will try to keep temperatures up in most areas this week, it is not a strong one and will let through all the disturbances. A bigger trough is forecast in the West this weekend, which will likely send multiple pieces of energy eastward next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but develop systems differently. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move across the middle of the country this weekend with areas of heavier rain and possibly some snow on the northern edge, particularly in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Another storm will move through the West this weekend and then through the rest of the country early next week. Models are mixed on the impacts from this system, but generally agree on a northern focus.

Another system may move through later next week. Temperatures will generally be mild or cool in the West and warm in the Central and East, though systems passing through could change that forecast.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Warm air flooded the region over the weekend and is forecast to continue into next week to some degree. There are a couple of chances for some precipitation this week, but nothing that looks particularly heavy. Snow cover is basically gone except in the far northeast and precipitation deficits are slowly building ahead of spring. There is some potential for bigger storms starting next week. The region will take all the precipitation it can get, even if it comes as snow.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Above-normal temperatures are forecast to continue through next week. Soil moisture maps are not particularly promising though, and many dry and drought spots exist. Though the threat for cold is over for a while, dryness and drought may threaten wheat going into spring. However, the pattern is becoming more active and there are at least some chances for precipitation over the next couple of weeks. Models are mixed on the impact, but will likely be sporadic and not widespread. Some areas may see favorable precipitation while others are missed. The south is favored by a system this weekend.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A clipper brought a burst of arctic cold to eastern areas over the weekend while it was warmer in the west. The warmer air will spread east this week and the threat for arctic cold has ended for a while. However, the weather pattern will become more active and a few systems this week could produce scattered showers. The chance for bigger storms is elevated as well, and the southern end of the region may be favored by a system this weekend.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Rising temperatures are helping to break ice up on the rivers and melt the remaining snow and ice in the Midwest. That will eventually make it through the Mississippi River system as well. But water levels are low and will need a more active weather pattern to bring them up permanently. That will start this week with a few systems moving through with scattered showers. Some heavier rain will be possible in the Delta this weekend. Additional systems are in the forecast next week as well.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Heavy rain has been falling in central Brazil lately, which has been favorable for the last remaining filling soybeans, but has been a little troublesome for transport and fieldwork as producers switch from soybeans to safrinha corn. Heavier rain continues this week but will thin out this weekend. The country still needs these showers to produce a lot of rain since most of the country is behind and soil moisture is rated as low in many areas for this time of year.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): It has been very dry for much of the country, but is getting more active in February. Though it was quiet over the past weekend, several rounds of showers are forecast to move through the country this week. The focus is on central and northern areas while drier areas in the south will have less precipitation. However, the active weather situation is forecast to continue next week as well. Though the trend has been for worsening soil moisture and crop conditions over the last six weeks or so, some improvements will be made. That is too late for some of the corn and soybean crops that are more advanced, though.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Europe has been in an active weather pattern for a long time and the frequent precipitation has favored winter wheat in almost all areas of the continent. The active weather pattern continues through next week. The situation is very favorable for winter crops as well as prepping soils for spring crops, a condition that extends south into northern Africa for the first time in years as well.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Very cold air recently has brought thoughts of winterkill on winter wheat. Another brief cold shot will move through Monday and Tuesday, but warmer temperatures will spread through afterward. Systems have become more frequent and are easing some of the precipitation deficits in the region as well as providing more protective snow cover. More systems are forecast to bring meaningful precipitation for this weekend and next week. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and the coming precipitation should be helpful before the wheat awakens from dormancy in another month or two.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Scattered showers moved across New South Wales over the weekend, helping to ease some of the rainfall deficits in the region. However, dryness is still widespread across the country. The remnants to Tropical Cyclone Mitchell will move through much of the country this week, helping to ease some of the stress as well. Crop conditions are still overall poor for cotton and sorghum, but may be improving.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Winter wheat and canola are in dormancy in largely good condition, but precipitation has been limited over the last couple of months. Showers chances are more frequent over the next couple of weeks, but with low amounts. The region will need much more before wheat and canola awaken from dormancy in the next month or two.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered snow. Temperatures near to well below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday.

East: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday.

Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal west and below normal east Monday, above normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, above normal Monday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers south Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Scattered showers south Friday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers south Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers south Tuesday-Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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