DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with a trough in the West that extends up into Alaska. Some disturbances will move from the trough eastward through the ridge this week, but the main energy will move eastward through the continent late this week and weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Another ridge will form right behind it, becoming stationary across the West up to Alaska, a big change to the weather pattern for next week. Disturbances will move in a clipper-like fashion east of the ridge in response.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will be exiting off the East Coast this weekend, likely bringing through some briefly colder air, at least temporarily. A couple of systems should move through next week, following a clipper-like pattern of northern influence and limited showers. Models have much warmer air for next week, though they are likely to trend downward given the setup.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...84 AT 2 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA PUERTA, TX AND 7 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HIDALGO, TX

LOW SUN...27 BELOW ZERO AT 4 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ESTCOURT STATION, ME

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...SAN FRANCISCO, CA 1.48 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with a trough in the West that extends up into Alaska. Some disturbances will move from the trough eastward through the ridge this week, but the main energy will move eastward through the continent late this week and weekend. Another ridge will form right behind it, becoming stationary across the West up to Alaska, a big change to the weather pattern for next week. Disturbances will move in a clipper-like fashion east of the ridge in response.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will be exiting off the East Coast this weekend, likely bringing through some briefly colder air, at least temporarily. A couple of systems should move through next week, following a clipper-like pattern of northern influence and limited showers. Models have much warmer air for next week, though they are likely to trend downward given the setup.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Temperatures continue to be largely above normal throughout this week with little interruption. Some spotty showers may move through on occasion, but the main storm track will bypass the region this week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Temperatures continue to be largely above normal this week. A system will move through late this week, bringing a mix of precipitation and a drop in temperature, at least briefly. Warmer air recently has reduced winter hardiness for winter wheat, which is now at risk for a shot of colder air that inevitably will return at some point this month. Snow falling later this week will help to protect wheat from damage in the short-term, but there is a much larger long-term risk now.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Temperatures will run above normal for much of this week. Some limited showers will be possible, but could bring a mix of frozen precipitation types that could cause transportation issues. A larger system will move through in a couple of pieces later this week and weekend, which may result in some significant snow in the Upper Midwest and will be followed by a drop in temperature, at least for a couple of days.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Water levels along the Mississippi River are low and falling this week. With very little precipitation in the forecast until the end of the week, there could be restrictions. The system responsible for some rain later this week should provide a meaningful boost, but not a long-term solution to the low water levels and transportation concerns.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers filled in across central Brazil over the weekend and were heavy, which is helping soybeans as more and more of the crop is setting pods, a process that accelerates in January, the most important month for rainfall in the country. Showers will be widespread early this week, but may thin out with time. With soil moisture still running very low, the coverage of showers will be more important than normal over the next six weeks or so. Southern areas are still in much better shape. A front moving in later this week will produce some more beneficial rounds of rainfall into the weekend.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Rainfall has been running below normal for a while across southern and central areas while northern areas have had much better coverage and amounts in recent weeks. The same is true with a pair of fronts moving through this week. Northern areas stand better chances for rainfall in both coverage and amounts, where conditions are largely favorable. Heat stress has been minimal so far this season, however, allowing the water that is still in the soil more time to be beneficial for developing corn and soybeans.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Soil moisture is still favorable across most of the continent for dormant winter wheat across the north and vegetative winter wheat in the Mediterranean. A very active weather pattern begins 2026, which will continue this trend. It will be colder over northern areas this week, though, which may leave some exposed areas at a minor risk of winterkill.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): The weather pattern is starting to become a bit more active, which is favorable for building some snowpack and soil moisture for dormant winter wheat. Areas at risk of winterkill are low because of the northern snowpack that is now building. Warmer temperatures later this week could threaten to melt a good portion of that recent snow, however. Models suggest that colder air will return next week, which could be threatening in some areas.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Soil moisture continues to fall in many areas, though some eastern areas are running with decent soil moisture after recent rains at the end of December. Dry weather for most areas this week will not be favorable for developing cotton and sorghum.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Winter wheat and canola are in dormancy in largely good condition, but precipitation has been relatively limited to end 2025. Another couple of drier weeks are forecast that would continue that trend. It is a long time before wheat and canola awaken from dormancy.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures variable.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers north Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday.

East: Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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