Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Another stretch of warmth for the U.S., and an uneven distribution of rain in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

MORE WARMTH FOR THE MIDWEST

Temperatures will run above normal in the Midwest for much of this week. Some limited showers will be possible and could bring a mix of frozen precipitation types that could cause transportation issues. A larger system will move through in a couple of pieces later this week and weekend, which may result in some significant snow in the Upper Midwest and will be followed by a drop in temperature, at least for a couple of days.

WARM IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, BUT POTENTIAL SNOW TO END THE WEEK

Temperatures continue to be largely above normal in the Central and Southern Plains this week. A system will move through late this week, bringing a mix of precipitation and a drop in temperature, at least briefly. Warmer air recently has reduced winter hardiness for winter wheat, which is now at risk for a shot of colder air that inevitably will return at some point this month. Snow falling later this week may help to protect wheat from damage in the short-term, but there is a much larger long-term risk now.

NORTHERN PLAINS OUT OF THE STORM TRACK THIS WEEK

Temperatures continue to be largely above normal in the Northern Plains throughout this week with little interruption. Some spotty showers may move through on occasion, but the main storm track will bypass the region this week.

LOW WATER LEVELS CONTINUE FOR MISSISSIPPI RIVER, BUMP LATER THIS WEEK

Water levels along the Mississippi River are low and falling this week. With very little precipitation in the forecast until the end of the week, there could be restrictions. The system responsible for some rain later this week should provide a meaningful boost, but not a long-term solution to the low water levels and transportation concerns.

HEAVY RAIN IN CENTRAL BRAZIL THINNING OUT THIS WEEK

Showers filled in across central Brazil over the weekend and were heavy, which is helping soybeans as more and more of the crop is setting pods. That process accelerates in January, the most important month for rainfall in the country. Showers will be widespread early this week, but may thin out with time. With soil moisture still running very low, the coverage of showers will be more important than normal over the next six weeks or so. Southern areas are still in much better shape. A front moving in later this week will produce some more beneficial rounds of rainfall into the weekend.

SOUTHERN ARGENTINA CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER

Rainfall has been running below normal for a while across southern and central Argentina while northern areas have had much better coverage and amounts in recent weeks. The same is true with a pair of fronts moving through this week. Northern areas stand better chances for rainfall in both coverage and amounts, where conditions are largely favorable. Heat stress has been minimal so far this season, however, allowing the water that is still in the soil more time to be beneficial for developing corn and soybeans.

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS EUROPE THIS WEEK

Soil moisture is still favorable across most of Europe for dormant winter wheat across the north and vegetative winter wheat in the Mediterranean. A very active weather pattern begins in 2026, which will continue this trend. It will be colder over northern areas this week, though, which may leave some exposed areas at a minor risk of winterkill.

BLACK SEA REGION GETTING SOME NEEDED PRECIPITATION

The weather pattern is starting to become a bit more active in the Black Sea region, which is favorable for building some snowpack and soil moisture for dormant winter wheat. Areas at risk of winterkill are low because of the northern snowpack that is now building. Warmer temperatures later this week could threaten to melt a good portion of that recent snow, however. Models suggest that colder air will return next week, which could be threatening in some areas.

MORE DRY WEATHER FOR AUSTRALIA

Soil moisture continues to fall in many areas of Australia, though some eastern areas are running with decent soil moisture after recent rains at the end of December. Dry weather for most areas this week will not be favorable for developing cotton and sorghum.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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