Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Widespread showers in central Brazil, dry conditions in central and southern Argentina, and a significant warm up in the Central U.S. are the weather factors driving the markets on Friday.

WARMER TEMPERATURES BUILD IN THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK

Clipper systems have been providing rounds of light snow to northern and eastern areas of the Midwest throughout the week. Temperatures have also cooled off behind some of these clippers, but by early next week, a major warm up could develop before larger systems from the West start arriving during the second half of the week. Another blast of Arctic air could redevelop closer to mid-January.

LIMITED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures have started to recover above average after the quick shot of cooler air earlier in the week. Very little precipitation is in the forecast until the middle of next week, with soil moisture falling for winter wheat areas. Warmer air has been awakening wheat as well, which will reduce winter hardiness for when cold air inevitably returns towards mid-January.

WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures have been fluctuating between above and below average as clipper systems tag the eastern Dakotas this week. By late this weekend, a dramatic warm up is expected throughout most of the region that could last into at least the middle of next week. Precipitation through the weekend is expected to remain relatively light with any quick-moving systems that pass through.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TODAY

Water levels along the Mississippi River are still concerning as precipitation remains limited. A few light rain showers will push through the area today and with temperatures on the rise early next week in northern areas, some snowmelt may give a slight boost to water levels. The next round of heavier precipitation may not arrive until the middle of next week across the Delta.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN BRAZIL

Soybeans will continue to fill pods across central Brazil, and this will accelerate in January. Widespread rain showers continue across central Brazil through early next week, but coverage could become more limited across east-central areas later in the week. Showers in southern Brazil have been favorable for maturing corn, and a brief break in the rain is possible late this weekend into early next week.

SHOWERS RETURN TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARGENTINA NEXT WEEK

Fronts have been moving through northern areas and providing consistent rainfall, favorable for pollinating corn. Moisture levels are falling across southern Argentina as precipitation misses to their north, increasing stress on developing corn and soybeans. By the second half of next week, fronts may bring slightly higher chances for isolated to scattered showers across central and southern areas.

ACTIVE PATTERN NEAR THE BLACK SEA

Portions of the Caucasus saw a round of heavier snow during the middle of the week with lighter showers in Ukraine. Brief cold snaps through early next week could cause some winterkill in areas without adequate snow cover. Multiple large systems could move through Ukraine and southwest Russia during the first half of next week, increasing snow cover in some areas.

SHOWERS FAVOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Soil moisture is still mixed around the wheat belt. Wheat and canola harvest is nearing the end with overall favorable conditions. Meanwhile, cotton and sorghum planting is nearly completed and is finding some unfortunate dryness in a lot of areas, causing stress. Most precipitation favors eastern Australia going into next week with southern and western areas remaining relatively dry.

DRYNESS BECOMING A CONCERN IN CHINA

Winter wheat and canola are in dormancy in largely good condition, but precipitation has been relatively limited this week. Southern areas are still in a much drier trend and in need of more rainfall. Very little precipitation is forecast going into mid-January, which may start to become a concern if the trend doesn't reverse over the winter.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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