Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A stretch of record warmth for the U.S., and an uneven distribution of rain in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

MIXED CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEST, EXTREME SOUTHERN WARMTH

Warmer air will flood the Midwest this week, melting what is left of the snowpack in most areas outside of the extreme north where it will stay only seasonably warm. A system will move through on Thursday and Friday, which will bring some showers, mostly as rain and freezing rain. Another system will move through this weekend with more potential showers and a brief burst of some colder air with rain changing to snow.

RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Warmer air is spreading into the Central and Southern Plains and will be record warm a few days this week. The warmer air will stick around for the end of the year. Very little precipitation is in the forecast, with soil moisture falling for winter wheat areas. Warmer air should awaken some wheat as well, which would reduce winter hardiness for when cold air inevitably returns in January.

NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE STORM TRACK, BUT WITH LIMITED SHOWERS

Temperatures were mixed over the weekend as a front settled into the Northern Plains. Temperatures will be very warm this week, though cold air in Canada may leak into the area after Christmas for a couple of days. A few systems will move through over the next week, but with very limited precipitation in the forecast.

SNOWMELT CAUSING SMALL BUMP FOR MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A few showers moved through the Delta on Sunday, but most areas were warm and dry. The warmth has melted snow across the Midwest, which will give a very limited boost to water levels on the Mississippi River, but will not be able to get it above concerning levels. An overall dry forecast through the end of the year and into January is also concerning for river transportation.

RAIN SHIFTING OUT OF EASTERN BRAZIL

A front that moved into southern Brazil on Sunday will be stalled there for most of the week, producing more widespread and largely beneficial rainfall. Scattered showers continue over much of central Brazil this week, boosting soil moisture for soybeans that continue to move into the pod-fill stage. Some areas in the east in Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais will get much less precipitation this week, which could be concerning as temperatures should be very hot when it is not raining.

STALLED FRONT OVER NORTHERN ARGENTINA

A front moved through Argentina this weekend with widespread rainfall, but some limited amounts across the south. That front should stall across the far north for most of the week. Another front will move through the country this weekend with scattered showers. Despite a drier stretch of weather recently, soil moisture is still largely favorable across most of the country, favorable for developing corn and soybeans.

MORE RAIN FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN

A system moved back into southwestern Europe over the weekend and will bring showers through the Mediterranean through most of the week, being favorable for vegetative winter wheat across the south. Soil moisture is favorable across much of the rest of Europe for dormant winter wheat.

DROUGHT STILL A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF BLACK SEA REGION

Dryness is still an issue for winter wheat that went into dormancy in mixed condition in the Black Sea region. It continues to be dry for most of the week, with showers coming back in after Christmas Day. Overall, conditions are unfavorable for winter wheat. With how warm it has been, winter hardiness may not be sufficient to survive the burst of cold as much of the region is snow-free.

ANOTHER DRY STRETCH FOR AUSTRALIA

Soil moisture is still mixed around Australia's wheat belt. Scattered showers moved through eastern areas this weekend and continue in the northeast for the next few days. But the rest of the country is forecast to dry out a bit to end the calendar year. Wheat and canola continue to be harvested and will find mostly favorable conditions. Meanwhile, cotton and sorghum planting is well advanced and will need to see this rain come to fruition.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.