Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A stretch of much warmer temperatures for the U.S., and rain in much of South America are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

TEMPERATURES RISING IN THE MIDWEST, BIGGER LATE WEEK STORM

A clipper brought a band of snow and an intense burst of significant cold air to the Midwest this weekend. That cold will leave on Monday and Tuesday from west to east. A system will bring through some showers and another brief burst of colder temperatures on Thursday, initiating more lake-effect snow in the Great Lakes. Another system may do something a bit similar but with less cold air and showers this weekend. The region will be in the way of the overall storm track along the border through next week, but should be overall warmer with lighter showers through the end of the year. The warmer air should cause significant melting of snow and get that moisture into the soil column.

ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A little snow went through northeastern Nebraska on Saturday, but most of the Central and Southern Plains stayed dry over the weekend. Cold air also filled in but is not lasting with warmer air flooding the region on Monday. A front will sweep through with some briefly milder air and a few showers on Wednesday into Thursday, but drier and warmer conditions are largely expected for a little while longer. That is not a good combination for winter wheat, which is seeing soil moisture falling. It is a slow process in the winter, but will have detrimental effects if this keeps up over the season. Warmer air may awaken some wheat as well, which would reduce winter hardiness for when cold air inevitably returns.

NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE STORM TRACK BUT WITH LIMITED SHOWERS

A band of snow moved through the Northern Plains on Friday and Saturday, along with some extremely cold air. But warmer air is flooding the region on Monday. A system will move along the border on Wednesday and bring through a few showers and a quick burst of colder air for Thursday. Another front will move through this weekend and the region will be in the way of the overall storm track near the border through next week. That may continue to bring through changing temperatures, but an overall warmer trend is occurring while the colder air is forecast to remain in Canada.

SNOWMELT IN THE MIDWEST BARELY BUDGING WATER LEVELS ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

Some showers fell across the southern Delta with a front that moved through this weekend along with some briefly colder air. A few showers will move through on Wednesday and Thursday, but showers will be hard to come by as a general below-normal precipitation pattern has been in the region this month. Water levels continue to be quite low, though some warmer air up north will melt some of the snowpack in the Midwest and give a little boost to the rivers as well. It just will not be enough and more precipitation is needed.

WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS BRAZIL THIS WEEK

A front brought some heavy rain to south-central Brazil on Friday and Saturday. Another front will move through with enhanced showers across the south on Monday and Tuesday. Showers have been less intense across central Brazil over the last week, but the coverage has been good, which is still improving soil moisture. Those showers continue this week and are forecast to be heavier.

IMPROVED FORECAST FOR RAINFALL IN ARGENTINA

A front has been bringing scattered showers through Argentina on Sunday and Monday, which brought some needed rain to Buenos Aires. Some isolated showers may move through southern areas this week, but most areas will be dry until another front moves through this weekend. Forecasts have increased the rainfall for that front and are stalling it in the country for next week. And despite a drier stretch of weather recently, soil moisture is still largely favorable across most of the country, favorable for developing corn and soybeans.

RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE MEDITERRANEAN THIS WEEK

A secondary storm track will mean some showers across the Mediterranean this week and some needed rainfall for Italy and parts of Spain. Soil moisture is favorable across much of the rest of the continent for dormant winter wheat.

DROUGHT STILL A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF BLACK SEA REGION

Some needed precipitation moved through the Black Sea region late last week and weekend, but dryness is still an issue for winter wheat that went into dormancy in mixed conditions. It will be another warm and dry week this week, unfavorable for winter wheat.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers moved across some eastern areas of Australia this weekend, but soil moisture is still mixed around the country's wheat belt. It will be a fairly dry next several days outside of some northeastern spots that will see showers. A better chance for scattered showers starts on Friday and then continues into the weekend, but again mostly for eastern areas. Wheat and canola are still being harvested and will find mostly favorable conditions. Meanwhile, cotton and sorghum planting continues and early-planted areas will need to see this rain come to fruition.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.