Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Some heavy rain falling ahead of a colder pattern for next week in the U.S., and overall drying conditions in Argentina and southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST IMPROVING SOIL MOISTURE AHEAD OF COLD

A system that produced some heavy rain across the southern Midwest on Thursday continues on Friday. Another system is forecast for Monday and Tuesday that could bring through some significant precipitation as well. The rain could improve soil moisture and reduce some of the drought in the region. However, very cold air is forecast to push through behind it for Thanksgiving in the start of a much colder and volatile pattern going into December. Major wintry precipitation and more cold air is in the forecast in this pattern that will shut down fieldwork opportunities.

HEAVY RAIN FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF COLDER PATTERN

A strong system is exiting the Central and Southern Plains on Friday after producing widespread moderate to heavy rainfall. Another system is forecast to move through Sunday and Monday with more showers and chances for heavy rain. The heavy rain should be favorable for building soil moisture and reducing drought. Some flooding will be possible though, especially across Texas where it has already been observed in some areas. Though temperatures are quite warm, a blast of colder air is forecast to move through behind next week's system, though to what degree is still being worked out by models. Another storm system or two are likely for next weekend into early December, which may produce wintry precipitation and more cold air. The window for getting fieldwork done is shutting down, particularly across the north.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS, COLD BURST NEXT WEEK

Drier conditions are forecast in the Northern Plains until a significant cold front moves through early next week. Along with chances for rain changing to snow, temperatures are forecast to take a massive dive behind that front and a much colder pattern is forecast to continue into December. That will shut down any winter wheat and start to freeze soils a bit early this year. Any areas with fieldwork to do have limited time in which to do so.

SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR MISSISSIPPI RIVER, MORE RAIN NEEDED

Water levels continue to be low on the Mississippi River, but they have gotten a boost from rain earlier this week and again here on Friday. Another system should bring beneficial rainfall to the river basin early next week. Though the boosts are nice, they may not be long lasting as drought surrounds the Delta region. However, this could be the start of a much better weather pattern for the region that could bring up water levels over the winter.

HEAVY RAIN MIGRATING TO CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front remains stalled in northern Brazil. Showers are building to the south through central Brazil through this weekend and are forecast to be heavy through next week. A front moving up from Argentina is not likely to have significant precipitation with it over southern Brazil, the start of a drier pattern for the region. Slowly worsening conditions for corn and soybeans are possible there as we get into the heart of the growing season in December.

ARGENTINA TRENDING DRIER DESPITE FRONTS

Soil moisture remains high for early this growing season in Argentina. However, an overall drier pattern is starting to set up for the country. A front moved through Thursday into Friday, but only produced patchy precipitation. Another such front will produce patchy precipitation later next week. It may take some time and be slow to occur, but soil moisture may slowly decline over the next few weeks if these fronts do not produce ample precipitation.

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS EUROPE

Scattered showers continue across much of Europe going into next week. Temperatures are colder now though and some of these showers will fall as snow, which could be heavy through this weekend from Hungary into southern Poland. Winter wheat that normally goes dormant over the winter will start on that journey for the rest of this month, particularly across the north.

DROUGHT STILL A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF BLACK SEA REGION

A couple of systems have been moving through the Black Sea region this week, but have been producing limited showers, mostly across Ukraine and northwestern Russia. The same goes for next week as well. Dryness in southwestern Russia is still a major issue for the winter wheat crop. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year. Above-normal temperatures continue to delay the onset of dormancy.

SHOWERS LIMITED IN AUSTRALIA

Soil moisture conditions continue to be mixed across Australia. Showers have been favoring western areas this week while eastern areas are only getting some isolated showers this weekend. Another wave of showers will be possible in the east on Tuesday, but will be scattered. With winter wheat and canola continuing to mature and harvest increasing, rain is less likely to be beneficial for those crops. After the harvest, cotton and sorghum planting will begin, but they need more rainfall.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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