Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A more active weather pattern in the U.S., low water levels on the Mississippi River, and increasing rain in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

TWO SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST THIS WEEK

A system brought a few showers to the Midwest this weekend, but also brought a drop in temperature after a few locations in the west hit record highs on Friday. A system will bring through scattered showers and a few thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday. It may be cold enough for a little snow on the northern edge from southern Minnesota to lower Michigan. A much bigger system will move through Thursday and Friday with more widespread precipitation. The rain will improve soil moisture for winter wheat and could reduce some of the drought in the region.

MULTIPLE SYSTEMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

It was quiet, but hot in the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend. A system will move into the region on Monday but with limited showers, mostly across the north. A stronger system will move in on Wednesday with widespread rainfall into Friday. The rain will be welcome for winter wheat. Yet another system is forecast to move in early next week with more showers. Though temperatures are forecast to be quite warm into next week, a big change may come on or just after Thanksgiving with a bigger system and a massive cold burst.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS IN ACTIVE PATTERN

Water levels continue to be low on the Mississippi River, causing transportation restrictions. A more active weather pattern is setting up for the rest of November, but that is unlikely to vastly improve water levels as drought surrounds the Delta region. This could be the start of a more favorable weather pattern for the winter, however.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER WATER LEVELS REMAIN LOW

Water levels continue to be low on the Mississippi River, causing transportation restrictions. A more active weather pattern is setting up for the rest of November, but that is unlikely to vastly improve water levels as drought surrounds the Delta region. This could be the start of a more favorable weather pattern for the winter however.

HEAVY RAIN MIGRATING TO CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front moved into southern Brazil this weekend and is bringing a wave of heavy rainfall north over the next couple of days. The front will stall out in the north midweek and showers will slowly build their back to the south through central Brazil later this week and weekend. Fronts moving up from Argentina are less likely to have significant precipitation with them over southern Brazil, which may be on the precipice of some worsening conditions for corn and soybeans as we get into the heart of the growing season in December.

ARGENTINA TRENDING DRIER

A front moved through Argentina with widespread and mostly heavy precipitation over the weekend, which has continued to keep soil moisture high for early this growing season. However, this may be the last front that produces this type of widespread precipitation for a while. A front will move through later this week, but is expected to have only patchy showers. The same goes for another next week. Soil conditions are currently favorable, but we may start to see those slowly decline over the next few weeks if these fronts do not produce ample precipitation.

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS EUROPE

Scattered showers moved through much of Europe over the weekend and several waves of showers will continue that trend this week. Temperatures are falling and some of these showers will fall as snow. Winter wheat that normally goes dormant over the winter will start on that journey for the rest of this month, particularly across the north.

SYSTEMS INCREASING PRECIPITATION FOR BLACK SEA REGION

A couple of systems will move through the Black Sea region this week, but are forecast to produce limited showers, mostly across Ukraine and northwestern Russia. Dryness in southwestern Russia is still a major issue for the winter wheat crop. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year. Above-normal temperatures continue to delay the onset of dormancy across the north.

SHOWERS FOR WESTERN AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers went through northeastern Australia over the weekend, but southeastern areas saw very little rainfall. Soil moisture conditions are still largely mixed across the country. Showers will favor western areas this week while eastern areas are forecast to be much drier. With winter wheat and canola continuing to mature and harvest increasing, rain is less likely to be beneficial for those crops. After the harvest, cotton and sorghum planting will begin, but they need more rainfall.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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