DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central with a trough in the Northeast, another in the Rockies, and one more in California. The Rockies trough will quickly move east early this week, with the ridge getting strong for the second half of the week. However, the pattern will get really active with the California trough moving east late this week, with another clipper-like system across the north just ahead of it. Another trough will move into the Southwest late this week and move east early next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Another trough will drop into the Pacific Northwest this weekend and deliver a couple of pieces of energy eastward around Thanksgiving. That could be a game-changer as we head into the end of November and beginning of December.

The U.S. and European models are similar this week, but have some differences for next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will still be exiting through the Southeast this weekend. Another system will move into the Pacific Northwest and a couple of systems may move through next week. Temperatures should be warm through early next week, but a big burst of cold air is forecast to move into the West next week and should spread eastward over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...94 AT JUNCTION, TX, 2 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA PUERTA, TX, 7 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HIDALGO, TX, AND RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW SUN...13 AT 16 MILES EAST OF HINCKLEY, MN

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...FLAGSTAFF, AZ 1.12 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central with a trough in the Northeast, another in the Rockies, and one more in California. The Rockies trough will quickly move east early this week, with the ridge getting strong for the second half of the week. However, the pattern will get really active with the California trough moving east late this week, with another clipper-like system across the north just ahead of it. Another trough will move into the Southwest late this week and move east early next week. Another trough will drop into the Pacific Northwest this weekend and deliver a couple of pieces of energy eastward around Thanksgiving. That could be a game-changer as we head into the end of November and beginning of December.

The U.S. and European models are similar this week, but have some differences for next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will still be exiting through the Southeast this weekend. Another system will move into the Pacific Northwest and a couple of systems may move through next week. Temperatures should be warm through early next week, but a big burst of cold air is forecast to move into the West next week and should spread eastward over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A few showers moved through over the weekend with some cooler temperatures. Some showers will be possible through Wednesday with a couple systems passing nearby. The same goes for a couple of systems this weekend into early next week. Temperatures will likely take a massive dive around Thanksgiving or just after as a big cold pattern is on the horizon.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): It was quiet, but hot over the weekend. A system will move into the region on Monday but with limited showers, mostly across the north. A stronger system will move in on Wednesday with widespread rainfall into Friday. The rain will be welcome for winter wheat. Yet another system is forecast to move in early next week with more showers. Though temperatures are forecast to be quite warm into next week, a big change may come on or just after Thanksgiving with a bigger system and a massive cold burst.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system brought a few showers this weekend, but also brought a drop in temperature after a few locations in the west hit record highs on Friday. A system will bring through scattered showers and a few thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. It may be cold enough for a little snow on the northern edge. A much bigger system will move through Thursday and Friday with more widespread precipitation. The rain will improve soil moisture for winter wheat and could reduce some of the drought in the region.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Water levels continue to be low on the Mississippi River, causing transportation restrictions. A more active weather pattern is setting up for the rest of November, but that is unlikely to vastly improve water levels as drought surrounds the Delta region.

This could be the start of a more favorable weather pattern for the winter however.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front moved into the south this weekend and is bringing a wave of heavy rainfall north over the next couple of days.

The front will stall out in the north midweek and showers will slowly build there back to the south through central Brazil later this week and weekend.

Fronts moving up from Argentina are less likely to have significant precipitation with them over southern Brazil, which may be on the precipice of some worsening conditions for corn and soybeans as we get into the heart of the growing season in December.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front moved through with widespread and mostly heavy precipitation over the weekend, which has continued to keep soil moisture high for early this growing season. However, this may be the last front that produces this type of widespread precipitation for a while. A front will move through later this week, but is expected to have only patchy showers.

The same goes for another next week. Soil conditions are currently favorable, but we may start to see those slowly decline over the next few weeks if these fronts do not produce ample precipitation.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers moved through much of the continent over the weekend and several waves of showers will continue that trend this week. Temperatures are falling and some of these showers will fall as snow. Winter wheat that normally goes dormant over the winter will start on that journey for the rest of this month, particularly across the north.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): A couple of systems will move through this week, but are forecast to produce limited showers, mostly across Ukraine and northwestern Russia. Dryness in southwestern Russia is still a major issue for the winter wheat crop. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year. Above-normal temperatures continue to delay the onset of dormancy across the north.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers went through northeastern areas over the weekend, but southeastern areas saw very little rainfall. Soil moisture conditions are still largely mixed across the country. Showers will favor western areas this week while eastern areas are forecast to be much drier. With winter wheat and canola continuing to mature and harvest increasing, rain is less likely to be beneficial for those crops. After the harvest, cotton and sorghum planting will begin, but they need more rainfall.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Overall conditions for the remaining corn and soybean harvest in northeast China and winter wheat and canola establishment in central China are favorable, though heavy rain in early October may have caused issues. Southern areas have been having issues with dryness, which may affect sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops. Dry conditions are largely forecast through the end of November, helpful across the north but detrimental for the south.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday, some snow north. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday, some snow north. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday, falling Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday.

Temperatures near to below normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Monday, north Tuesday-Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near to below normal south and near to above normal north through Thursday, near normal Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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