Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A change in the weather pattern, low water levels on the Mississippi River, and one last week of good weather in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

COLD, LAKE-EFFECT SNOW LEAVING MIDWEST

A system went through the Midwest on Saturday and has pulled down some significantly cold air, leading to areas of lake-effect snow that will extend through Monday. Temperatures will then quickly rise for the rest of the week, especially across the west. A system moving through Canada may bring some light showers on Tuesday into Wednesday. Otherwise, the region will be drier until this weekend, as models try to figure out how to develop a system across the middle of the country.

TEMPERATURES RISING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Some showers went through Nebraska over the weekend, but most areas stayed dry while cold temperatures descended through the Central and Southern Plains. Temperatures will quickly rise on Monday night with above-normal temperatures this week. A system will move in on Friday or more likely this weekend. Models are unsure of its development, but could mean widespread precipitation and strong winds. More systems will be possible afterward for the rest of the month as the pattern gets a bit more active.

QUIET, BUT BREEZY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Cold air moved into the Northern Plains over the weekend, but is quickly moving out early this week with some warm and breezy winds. A system will move in with some showers for Friday and Saturday, but will be limited. The storm frequency is forecast to increase next week with several moving through. With temperatures falling this weekend, it could mean some areas of snow next week.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER WATER LEVELS REMAIN LOW

Water levels continue to be low on the Mississippi River, causing transportation restrictions. The Delta region needs a more active weather pattern to lift water levels again. No significant precipitation is forecast this week, but the pattern may become more active starting this weekend. We may not see enough precipitation to significantly raise water levels this month, but may be the start of a pattern that is more favorable over the winter.

HEAVY RAIN FOR BRAZIL

A front moved up into Brazil this weekend and brought widespread showers and thunderstorms. The front is settling into central and especially northern Brazil where showers will continue this week. Another front will move into the country on Wednesday and is forecast to produce quite a bit of rain as well. With this front lifting northward into central Brazil late this week, that could be the start of some drier-than-normal conditions for southern Brazil after a very wet start to the growing season.

ONE LAST BENEFICIAL FRONT MOVING THROUGH ARGENTINA

A front lifted north out of Argentina this weekend, bringing through some cooler temperatures but no frost. Soil moisture is still really good across much of the country. Another front will bring showers through on Tuesday and Wednesday, but the pattern may start to get drier afterward, with models insistent on less frequent frontal passages, or at least fronts with less rainfall potential. If the heat can start to increase as well, we could see a big turnaround in weather conditions for corn and soybeans going forward. The winter wheat crop has enjoyed enough good weather to produce a good crop, though the frequent rain has increased disease pressure.

OVERALL GOOD CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF EUROPE

Scattered showers went across southern Europe this weekend and continue in the southeast early this week as a system leaves. Limited showers have also moved through western areas and continue in a couple of waves this week as well. Weather conditions are still relatively favorable for winter wheat establishment throughout much of the continent.

A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE BLACK SEA REGION

Showers in October improved soil moisture somewhat throughout the Black Sea region, but eastern areas are still dealing with deficits and drought for winter wheat establishment. A system will bring through limited showers early this week, but not enough to turn around the situation for those areas in a deficit. Temperatures are still above normal this week, delaying dormancy for northern areas that should be going dormant this time of year. With the limited soil moisture around, wheat is growing in poor soil moisture and dormancy would actually be favored. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

Limited showers went through eastern Australia over the weekend, but many areas stayed dry. Drier conditions are favored for most of the week, but a system moving through eastern areas late this week could bring scattered showers. Mixed conditions are still found across the country. With winter wheat and canola continuing to mature and harvest beginning, there is little time for rain to be beneficial. After the harvest, cotton and sorghum planting will begin, but they need more rainfall.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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