DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the Southeast, a ridge in eastern Canada, and another ridge in the West. Disturbances are passing through the gap between the ridges for the next several days. The western ridge will become the dominant one this weekend and another trough will move through Canada north of it.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge will have a tendency to spread eastward next week, but another disturbance will disrupt it as it moves through the U.S. later next week and weekend, and many more disturbances are lining up to either move over or through the ridge going into mid-November. This should be a more active pattern with widely-changing weather conditions.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar despite all the activity. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move down into the Southeast over the weekend where it will create some showers into early next week. A system will move through Canada and bring its front to northern areas early next week that may produce some limited showers. Another clipper will be possible in the middle of next week and a system is likely to move through the country for late next week and weekend.

Temperatures are forecast to be cooler in the Southeast and warm in the West and Plains for much of next week, despite all the systems involved. Models may change significantly for next week though because of all the activity.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...101 AT ZAPATA, TX AND 2 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA PUERTA, TX

LOW TUE...10 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...FORT SMITH, AR 1.39 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the Southeast, a ridge in eastern Canada, and another ridge in the West. Disturbances are passing through the gap between the ridges for the next several days. The western ridge will become the dominant one this weekend and another trough will move through Canada north of it. The ridge will have a tendency to spread eastward next week, but another disturbance will disrupt it as it moves through the U.S. later next week and weekend, and many more disturbances are lining up to either move over or through the ridge going into mid-November. This should be a more active pattern with widely-changing weather conditions.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar despite all the activity. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move down into the Southeast over the weekend where it will create some showers into early next week. A system will move through Canada and bring its front to northern areas early next week that may produce some limited showers. Another clipper will be possible in the middle of next week and a system is likely to move through the country for late next week and weekend.

Temperatures are forecast to be cooler in the Southeast and warm in the West and Plains for much of next week, despite all the systems involved. Models may change significantly for next week though because of all the activity.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): The region will be watching several little systems and fronts moving through the region through the first week of November, though precipitation looks rather light. Temperatures will tend to be variable with all the systems moving through, but the forecast is trending above-normal starting this weekend.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system brought scattered showers over the last couple of days, adding to the heavy rain from the weekend. That should help with some of the drought that had been spreading through the region, and fill soils for winter wheat establishment.

Some other spots may have seen some delays to harvest and other fieldwork. The region will trend drier going into November, though, giving those with fieldwork to do some opportunity in which to do so.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system is curling around the southern and eastern portions of the region for Wednesday and Thursday with scattered showers, followed by a little burst of cooler air. This is after bringing some moderate to heavy rainfall to western areas on Tuesday. Some additional showers may develop in that cooler air over the weekend and the region will be dealing with a couple of clippers going into early November that should create some variable conditions. That may cause issues with harvest and other fieldwork in some areas.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A system is moving through on Wednesday and brought another round of scattered showers and moderate rain, which is helping to reduce drought in the region. The forecast for Mississippi River water levels has improved since earlier this week, bringing about a period of somewhat higher levels for early November. The area will trend drier again after the system passes on Wednesday, though.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front is moving into central Brazil and will restart showers after a week of dryness. Producers did not make as much progress on soybean planting last week as expected, which may be due to the dryness. Producers may be worried about soil moisture for germination and early growth, but another front will move through this weekend into next week which looks like it may be more beneficial for bringing widespread rainfall.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): It is much cooler in the country this week, but any areas of frost would have been very limited across far southern areas and not likely to cause much, if any, damage. Systems continue to push through the country going into early November, bringing through scattered showers that have kept soil moisture high for planting and early growth of corn. However, this also brings through cooler temperatures that will keep growth slow. Winter wheat prospects are high this year because of all the rainfall, though that may be causing more disease pressure, as well.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): The continent has seen many waves of showers over the last couple of weeks, and more will move through into next week, being very favorable for winter wheat establishment. The rain may have led to some significant delays in fieldwork, though.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Rainfall over the last week has been overall favorable for the region to improve soil moisture for winter wheat establishment. Another round of showers will move through Friday and Saturday, but the region will trend drier afterward as systems are more likely to move across the north in early November. That should keep temperatures warmer for a while and hold off dormancy, which typically starts to occur for northern areas in early November. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers went through eastern Australia earlier this week, providing some limited benefit to a few dry spots.

Showers will be tougher to find for the rest of the week, but a system moving through this weekend has increasing showers forecast for eastern areas. Though some of the recent rainfall has been favorable, it has been spotty and hasn't hit all areas that have been dry. Conditions may have improved for filling winter wheat and canola, but are still mixed.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Overall conditions for corn and soybean harvest in northeast China and winter wheat and canola establishment in central China are favorable. Southern areas have been having issues with dryness though, which may affect sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated showers southwest. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers south Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

East: Scattered showers south Wednesday, east Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers south Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday.

Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal through Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south through Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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