DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...100 AT 7 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HIDALGO, TX, LA PUERTA, TX, AND MCALLEN, TX

LOW MON...11 AT 32 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BYNUM, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...BATON ROUGE, LA 1.51 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough off the California coast and another moving through central Canada. The Canadian portion will move east early this week with a ridge taking over the middle of the continent right behind it. Troughs will then be off of both coasts by this weekend. The western trough will be a stronger one and push some energy into the ridge next week and may have some success in pushing the ridge eastward throughout the week.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement through the middle of next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A large system is forecast to move through the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies this weekend with some areas of heavy rain. The front to the system will get pushed into the middle of the country next week where additional systems or disturbances moving along it could produce some significant rainfall. Temperatures east of the front will be well above normal while those west of it will be below normal.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Heavy rain moved through portions of the region over the weekend, slowing down harvest progress. Another system will move through this weekend and could produce more of the same. A dry period in between the systems could allow for some significant harvest progress this week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front continues to produce some areas of rain as it moves through on Tuesday, after bringing a couple of streaks of heavier rain through northern areas Sunday and Monday. Drier weather and a burst of cooler temperatures is following behind the front, but we could see some spotty showers and temperatures will increase later this week. A system will send a cold front into the region this weekend that may stick around into next week with scattered showers. Some disruption to harvest is possible, though winter wheat areas would like to see some additional rainfall after the recent heat.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front continues to bring rain as it moves through the region Tuesday, disrupting the harvest across the south. A few showers may be possible late week as well. But overall drier conditions continue to promote harvest for most of the region. Another front is forecast to move into the region this weekend that could bring more areas of unneeded rainfall.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Some showers moved through on Monday and were heavy in a couple of spots, helping with the drought and bringing at least some water into the Mississippi River. A front will push through on Tuesday with more limited showers. Drier weather that follows will continue to be supportive of harvest, but not for river levels, which should continue to decline overall, creating transportation issues.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front is moving into the south with showers early this week, favorable for planting and early growth. Central Brazil has been much drier over the last two weeks, unfavorable for soybean establishment after a round of rain got progress going well ahead of schedule in the region. Seeds that have been planted have been at risk of germinating and quickly dying until the rains become more consistent. However, models are a little more aggressive with showers developing in the region late this week and weekend as the true start to the wet season rainfall. That should be supportive of soybeans going forward.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Most areas have good soil moisture for early corn planting and establishment. Another front moved through this weekend with fairly widespread rainfall, but also a significant, but brief, drop in temperature. Soybean planting will increase later in October when overnight lows are more reliably above 10 Celsius. Another system is forecast to go through this weekend with widespread rainfall. Though there is a risk of hotter and drier weather this season due to the developing La Nina, conditions are favorable thus far.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers continue in eastern Europe throughout the week. A small disturbance may produce showers for parts of Spain this week as well, which are sorely needed there for winter wheat establishment. Another system will move into eastern areas this weekend with more showers that may continue into next week, also supportive of building soil moisture while bringing a burst of colder air that would not be.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Some showers moved through the region over the weekend, and extension of a system that lingered over southeastern Europe from last week. However, many areas saw little or no rainfall, especially in southwestern Russia, which is much drier. The rainfall forecast has increased for this week and a system settling in this weekend could continue those showers for at least some of next week. The region will take any and all rainfall that wishes to fall as drought continues to be extensive in much of the region, especially in the east.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Showers moved through some areas over the weekend, mostly across the wetter west. Showers were spottier in the east. The country is in a drier stretch of weather that continues this week. Some winter wheat and canola areas are struggling with dryness while others are fairing much better. The country would like more consistent rainfall as crops go more into reproductive and filling stages, but the forecast is not supportive of that. Instead, smaller areas of showers that are mostly below normal are in the forecast.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Weather continues to be mostly favorable for corn and soybean harvest in northeast China, though colder weather may slow down progress. Central China continues to see regular showers through next week, favorable for more winter wheat and canola planting and establishment.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers south Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday.

Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Saturday.

East: Scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures above to well above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal north and well above normal south.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures below normal north and above normal south Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures above to well above normal Sunday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures falling below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers north through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Spotty showers northwest. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Spotty showers through Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to below normal south and near to above normal north through Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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