DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across most of the U.S. with a trough off the West Coast. The trough will move eastward into the West and sit there going into next week. Another trough will move across Canada this weekend and early next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge will redevelop across Canada behind the trough but it may not last long. We could see another trough moving through Canada later next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A front will try to produce showers as it moves through the Midwest this weekend into early next week. We could see another front moving down from Canada later next week. Temperatures will generally be above normal for most areas, though the Plains may be colder behind the early-week front.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...101 AT 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA

LOW MON...23 AT 32 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BYNUM, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...JACKSONVILLE, FL 0.83 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across most of the U.S. with a trough off the West Coast. The trough will move eastward into the West and sit there going into next week.

Another trough will move across Canada this weekend and early next week. The ridge will redevelop across Canada behind the trough but it may not last long.

We could see another trough moving through Canada later next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A front will try to produce showers as it moves through the Midwest this weekend into early next week. We could see another front moving down from Canada later next week. Temperatures will generally be above normal for most areas, though the Plains may be colder behind the early-week front.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will move into the region on Wednesday and may produce some showers, with better chances for Friday into the weekend. Any rainfall is likely to be disruptive to the harvest and not favorable for even immature crops.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Warm and dry conditions continue in most areas this week, favorable for fieldwork of all kinds. A front will move into the region over the weekend and may produce showers into early next week. Any rainfall would not be favorable for harvest, but would keep soil moisture fairly high for winter wheat planting and establishment.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Warm and dry conditions continue throughout the week. A front will try to produce showers as it gets into the region over the weekend, continuing to some degree into next week.

Rainfall could be disruptive to maturing crops and harvest.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Warm and dry weather in the forecast is favorable for harvest, but not for the river systems, which are drying back out again after getting a nice bump from last week's rainfall. Largely drier conditions would cause transportation issues for much of the fall season.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front will continue to produce rainfall in southern Brazil throughout this week, favorable for planting and early growth. Central Brazil has gotten drier and only spotty showers are in the forecast through next week, unfavorable for soybean planting after a round of rain got progress going well ahead of schedule in the region. Seeds that have been planted are at risk of germinating and quickly dying over the next couple of weeks.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A front continues over far northern areas with showers this week and most areas have good soil moisture for early planting and establishment. Another front moving through this weekend should produce more widespread rainfall. Soybean planting may begin this week, but most areas will wait for significant planting later on in October.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Isolated showers continue over eastern areas of the continent for much of the week, particularly in the Balkans which need rain.

Another system is forecast to move into the west on Friday with strong winds and widespread rainfall, which will spread through most of the continent this weekend into early next week. Spain is forecast to be left out, which could use more rainfall.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system moving through southeastern Europe is promoting more widespread rainfall this week, particularly in Ukraine. Some areas remain very dry though for winter wheat planting and establishment, especially in southwestern Russia. Drier weather is likely for next week and beyond, which may mean only limited benefit from this week's rainfall.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): The country has gone into a drier stretch again, which is somewhat troubling for winter wheat and canola going through their reproductive stages. Some showers will go through southeastern areas, but most of the country will be dry this week. Western areas could see some beneficial rainfall this weekend, however.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Weather continues to be mostly favorable for corn and soybean harvest in northeast China. Central China continues to see occasional showers this week, favorable for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday.

East: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Sunday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Spotty showers far west. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, above normal Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Spotty showers northwest through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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