DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a big ridge in Canada. A trough is drifting underneath it through the U.S. throughout the weekend and into early next week. It will get another little boost from a disturbance early next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A ridge developing over the West next week will likely push it eastward and out of the country next weekend. Another trough will be forming in the Gulf of Alaska next week and possibly send some energy eastward at the end of the month.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, and have come into more agreement for next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A slow-moving system in the middle of the country will produce rainfall for much of next week across the middle of the country, especially south. Another system may move into the Pacific Northwest and then the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies next weekend with showers. Temperatures will continue to be above normal through next week, though high temperatures may be lower because of showers and cloud cover in the middle of the country.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...101 AT 4 MILES SOUTH OF TOLLESON, AZ

LOW THU...18 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...FARGO, ND 2.48 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a big ridge in Canada. A trough is drifting underneath it through the U.S. throughout the weekend and into early next week. It will get another little boost from a disturbance early next week. A ridge developing over the West next week will likely push it eastward and out of the country next weekend. Another trough will be forming in the Gulf of Alaska next week and possibly send some energy eastward at the end of the month.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, and have come into more agreement for next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A slow-moving system in the middle of the country will produce rainfall for much of next week across the middle of the country, especially south. Another system may move into the Pacific Northwest and then the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies next weekend with showers. Temperatures will continue to be above normal through next week, though high temperatures may be lower because of showers and cloud cover in the middle of the country.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers and areas of heavy rain have been moving through the region over the last several days.

Showers will continue on Friday with a few more on Monday. The rain favors any immature corn and soybeans, but make it too wet for some areas that are looking to mature and get harvest going. Drier conditions next week should be more favorable for that.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Areas of showers and some heavy rain have been moving through the region with a slow-moving system over the last several days. That is pushing back the drydown of corn and soybeans. The system should push south and east out of the area this weekend, but another system will take its place early next week with showers lingering for several more days across the east. Rainfall in the southwest is favoring planting and establishment of winter wheat.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Isolated showers over western areas will spread eastward this weekend into early next week before leaving, but another system will take its place and continue showers for much of next week. With how slow-moving the systems and showers are, some areas could pick up heavy rain. Those showers will largely be unfavorable for maturing crops and harvest, but could be beneficial for reducing drought, or at least its expansion, as well as getting some water into the Mississippi River system.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Only spotty showers have been falling over the last couple of days as recent dryness continues to cause drought to develop and water levels to lower on the Mississippi River. A system will be slow to move across the Midwest into next week, and another system will quickly take its place next week, which will continue showers for many days. That should bring some needed rainfall into the region, as well as the Mississippi River system. Some disruption to the ongoing harvest is likely, though.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Spring planting is underway across the south, where soil moisture conditions are favorable in which to do so. Some isolated showers will be possible across Mato Grosso through the weekend. A front that moves into the country this weekend and early next week should bring a swath of rain to much of the country, stalling from Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais for a few days that will likely mean the start of the wet season rainfall. Producers may still wait until the rainfall becomes more consistent in October to start soybean planting there as it will likely be drier after the front fizzles out for multiple days.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Soil moisture is favorable for early planting of corn and sunflowers, but some producers may choose to wait longer to avoid frosts. Some cold air will move in behind a stronger front early next week that may keep producers waiting. Scattered showers are likely ahead of it through the weekend in what continues to look like a favorable start to the planting season.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Recent rain has increased soil moisture for most of the continent over the last month, which had been favorable for filling summer crops and planting winter crops. A break this week has been more favorable for fieldwork. Southern stretches including Spain, Italy, and the southeast could use more rainfall. A system is forecast to move into the continent this weekend and slowly spread eastward next week, which may bring rainfall to those southern areas.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system brought rainfall to some of the driest areas of the region this week. That may help with winter wheat planting to some degree, but the region needs a lot more to get out of drought, and dryness is likely to follow after the system moves out, despite a couple of additional systems next week.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture across most areas of the country. Another system is providing more rainfall to eastern areas on Friday. Some colder air will follow and there is a slight risk of frost, especially behind a stronger cold front this weekend for southeastern areas of the country. Should frost develop, that could be severely damaging to reproductive wheat and canola. Next week is forecast to be much drier.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Conditions have been more favorable across central and northeast China for filling corn and soybeans over the last several weeks. Those with corn and soybeans in the northeast are getting some drier weather while those in central China continue to see showers as they plant winter wheat and canola.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers east Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Monday.

Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday, below normal Monday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Spotty showers northwest. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers northwest through Sunday. Scattered showers Monday, north Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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