DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a big ridge in Canada. Troughs are located in several spots across the U.S. One of them will escape northeast through a weak spot in the Canadian ridge over the next couple of days while another drifts eastward through the country throughout the week and weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A ridge developing over the West early next week will likely push it out of the country. Meanwhile, a trough that moves into the Gulf of Alaska this weekend will send a piece of energy eastward early next week that will temporarily push out the Canadian ridge, but the western ridge will build up into Canada next week as well, keeping the cold air locked away in the Arctic.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar for this week, but differ significantly in their precipitation forecasts for next week. I will use a blend but favor the GFS.

A slow-moving system in the middle of the country this weekend will spread eastward through the country early next week. Temperatures will continue to be above normal through next week. Some cooler temperatures may start to move into the West late next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...110 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW MON...24 AT 14 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MACKAY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...HELENA, MT 0.43 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a big ridge in Canada. Troughs are located in several spots across the U.S. One of them will escape northeast through a weak spot in the Canadian ridge over the next couple of days while another drifts eastward through the country throughout the week and weekend. A ridge developing over the West early next week will likely push it out of the country. Meanwhile, a trough that moves into the Gulf of Alaska this weekend will send a piece of energy eastward early next week that will temporarily push out the Canadian ridge, but the western ridge will build up into Canada next week as well, keeping the cold air locked away in the Arctic.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar for this week, but differ significantly in their precipitation forecasts for next week. I will use a blend but favor the GFS.

A slow-moving system in the middle of the country this weekend will spread eastward through the country early next week. Temperatures will continue to be above normal through next week. Some cooler temperatures may start to move into the West late next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers and areas of heavy rain have been moving through the region over the last several days.

Areas of showers will continue throughout the week. That will favor immature corn and soybeans, but make it too wet for some areas that are looking to mature and get harvest going.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Areas of showers moved through over the weekend. Some areas of heavy rain pushed back the drydown of corn and soybeans. Areas of showers will continue throughout the week and should push south and east out of the area this weekend. Rainfall in the southwest is favoring planting and establishment of winter wheat.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Temperatures increased over the weekend and remain hot this week. Isolated showers continue over western areas early- to mid-week. The showers will increase late this week and spread eastward this weekend. Those showers will largely be unfavorable for maturing crops and harvest, but could be beneficial for reducing drought, or at least its expansion, as well as getting some water into the Mississippi River system.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Only spotty showers are in the forecast for the next couple of days as recent dryness continues to cause drought to develop and water levels to lower on the Mississippi River. A system will be slow to move across the Midwest later this week into next week, which may bring some more rainfall in the region, as well as the Mississippi River system. Some disruption to the ongoing harvest is possible.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Spring planting is underway across the south, where soil moisture conditions are favorable in which to do so. A front that moved through Sunday and Monday produced some more rainfall for these areas, but is losing its rainfall as it moves northward. Some isolated showers will be possible across Mato Grosso, but the consistent wet season rainfall does not look to start early. A front that moves into the country this weekend and early next week could bring that necessary rainfall, but would only be a couple of days early. Producers may still wait until the rainfall becomes more consistent in October to start soybean planting there.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Soil moisture is favorable for early planting of corn and sunflowers, but some producers may choose to wait longer to avoid frosts. Some cold air may be possible behind a stronger front early next week that may keep producers waiting. Scattered showers are likely ahead of it in the middle of this week, with more showers for the weekend in what continues to look like a favorable start to the planting season.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Waves of rain have been increasing soil moisture for most of the continent over the last month, which had been favorable for filling summer crops and planting winter crops. A break would now be more favorable, which could happen for a lot of areas this week. Southern stretches including Spain, Italy, and the southeast could use more rainfall, though. A system is forecast to move into the continent this weekend and slowly spread eastward next week, which may bring rainfall to those southern areas.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Showers fell across far western Ukraine over the weekend and continue there early this week. The system responsible will bring showers eastward later this week with increasing rainfall for very dry areas across the east. That may help with winter wheat planting to some degree, but the region needs a lot more to get out of drought and dryness is likely to follow after the system moves out.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system moved through western areas with some rainfall over the weekend and will move through eastern areas with needed rainfall early this week. Not all areas will receive the rainfall they need, but it will be welcome regardless. A system that only scrapes western areas midweek should provide some beneficial rainfall later this week to eastern areas.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Conditions have been more favorable across central and northeast China for filling corn and soybeans over the last several weeks. Those with corn and soybeans in the northeast would likely favor some drier weather while those in central China would like showers to continue as they plant winter wheat and canola. Most areas will get what they need this week with showers across central areas and drier conditions in the northeast.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers through Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Saturday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Saturday.

East: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers west Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday.

Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Tuesday, northwest Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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