DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

A trough is slowly exiting the Southeast U.S. Across the Southern Plains, a ridge is lending to drier conditions. In the Northern Plains, a closed low will drift east into the western Midwest over the weekend and provide scattered showers and thunderstorms. Ridging will take over the East. Early next week, a trough will slowly move through the Central U.S. as it will be surrounded by a ridge in the East and West.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

The ridges in the West and East will keep temperatures above average in these areas next week with near to slightly below-average temperatures in the Plains.

During the second half of next week, another trough from the Canadian Prairies will attempt to dig into the western Corn Belt, keeping the pattern active through mid-August.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...121 AT 4 MILES EAST OF NORTH SHORE, CA

LOW THU...25 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...TAMPA, FL 1.41 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A trough is slowly exiting the Southeast U.S. Across the Southern Plains, a ridge is lending to drier conditions. In the Northern Plains, a closed low will drift east into the western Midwest over the weekend and provide scattered showers and thunderstorms. Ridging will take over the East. Early next week, a trough will slowly move through the Central U.S. as it will be surrounded by a ridge in the East and West.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

The ridges in the West and East will keep temperatures above average in these areas next week with near to slightly below-average temperatures in the Plains.

During the second half of next week, another trough from the Canadian Prairies will attempt to dig into the western Corn Belt, keeping the pattern active through mid-August.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Soil moisture continues to build across the region with multiple rounds of rain moving through earlier this week. Corn and soybeans are benefiting from the consistent rainfall, but it is slowing down winter wheat harvest and potentially degrading maturing spring wheat. The pattern is expected to remain active into mid-August with scattered showers and storms moving through. Some storms could be severe.

Temperatures will drop below average late this week behind a cold front and remain on the cooler side going into next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): High pressure is keeping conditions on the drier side across the Southern Plains while the Central Plains saw spotty showers earlier this week. As fronts continue to move through the Northern Plains, some precipitation may drift into the Central Plains, but it will be spotty. Recent rainfall has kept conditions mostly favorable for corn and soybeans in northern areas while the Southern Plains are benefiting from the hot and dry conditions as they start harvest.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Through the first half of this week, the western Midwest has remained active. Temperatures are also trending warmer with high temperatures reaching into the 90s for some spots. By this weekend, a stronger front will push into the region providing scattered showers and a slight cool down with temperatures closer to average in the west. The east will remain relatively dry until early next week when the cold front pushes through. Soil moisture remains in good shape for most areas as corn and soybeans advance through their reproductive stages.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Conditions have been relatively dry in the Northern Delta while a stalled front has led to showers along the Gulf Coast. Drier conditions in the north have helped maturing crops and early harvest. Through this weekend, rainfall will remain confined to Gulf Coast before a cold front could provide showers farther north next week.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): Recent cooler temperatures this week have limited some of the stress on filling spring wheat, but relatively dry conditions are still a concern. Drier conditions have been favorable for winter wheat harvest though. Temperatures will start to rise again over the weekend and into next week, leading to a potential heat wave. Dry conditions are expected for much of next week as systems pass by to the north in Western Canada.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered rain showers have been impacting the Southern Prairies earlier this week but it's coming too late for the maturing crops in the area. By this weekend, scattered showers are forecast to spread into the Northern Prairies and the rain will again be too late for damaged crops. As the rain spreads north, it could help suppress some wildfires in forested regions. The pattern could remain active next week with multiple systems moving through.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A cold front is expected to move through southern areas on Friday. The rain will likely disrupt what's left of the corn harvest but be beneficial to winter wheat that will start heading. By the upcoming weekend and much of next week, a drier stretch could develop. Cooler temperatures will also build across the southern and central areas through the weekend, with a slight risk for some spotty frost in southern Brazil.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Central areas are expected to be on the drier side going into mid-August as the storm track shifts into northern Argentina and southern Brazil. As vegetative wheat starts to head, additional soil moisture is still needed for the developing crop. Low temperatures could dip near freezing late this week, leading to areas of frost. Temperatures may only briefly trend near average early next week before diving below average during the second half of the week.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Late this week into the upcoming weekend, spotty showers will favor northern areas with the south remaining dry and warm.

Through mid-August, showers will mainly favor northern and eastern areas.

Although, a cold front could provide a few scattered showers to southern areas late next week. Summer crops may need more soil moisture but the drier conditions are favorable for harvest.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Hotter and drier conditions across the east especially have been stressful for filling corn. Fronts have largely been weakening as they get into southwest Russia while Ukraine has been seeing the bulk of the rain earlier this week. Dryness and drought continue to be issues for much of the region and showers will be limited going into next week in southwest Russia with the bulk of the rain favoring Ukraine.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A front will come crashing into Western Australia this weekend with scattered showers in the east as well. Scattered showers will continue to build soil moisture and reduce the risk of drought.

Another front will move through Western Australia during the middle of next week with isolated showers favored in eastern areas. Vegetative winter wheat and canola are benefiting from the consistent rainfall, but the southeast could use more precipitation.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A strong front will move through the North China Plain early this weekend, providing some areas of moderate to heavy rain. This should offer some relief from the recent heat and dryness. Next week, showers will become more isolated across the region as a front stalls just to the south and another system moves through Northeast China. Filling corn and soybeans in the North China Plain could use more rainfall.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Tuesday.

East: Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north through Saturday. Scattered showers north Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, near to below normal north and near to above normal south Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Tuesday.

Temperatures below normal Friday, below to well below normal Saturday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal south and near to above normal north.

Forecast: Isolated showers south Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Tuesday.

Temperatures below normal south and near normal north Friday, near to below normal north and below to well below normal south Saturday-Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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