Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Strong to potentially severe storms in the Northern Plains, frost risks in South America, and active patterns in Australia and the Canadian Prairies are the weather factors driving the markets on Thursday.

WARM AND WET PATTERN FOR THE MIDWEST INTO MID-AUGUST

Throughout the first half of this week, the western Midwest has remained active. Temperatures are also trending warmer with high temperatures reaching into the 90s for some spots. By this weekend, a stronger front will push into the region providing scattered showers and a slight cool down with temperatures closer to average in the west. The east will remain relatively dry until early next week when the cold front pushes through. Soil moisture remains in good shape for most areas as corn and soybeans advance through their reproductive stages.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FAVOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS

High pressure is keeping conditions on the drier side across the Southern Plains while the Central Plains saw spotty showers earlier this week. As fronts continue to move through the Northern Plains, some precipitation may drift into the Central Plains, but it will be spotty. Recent rainfall has kept conditions mostly favorable for corn and soybeans, but western areas could use more rain.

WHEAT HARVEST DELAYS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Soil moisture continues to build across the region with multiple rounds of rain moving through earlier this week. Corn and soybeans are benefiting from the consistent rainfall, but it is slowing down winter wheat harvest and potentially degrading maturing spring wheat. Late this week into early next week will remain active with scattered showers and storms moving through. Some storms could be severe. Temperatures will drop below average late this week behind a cold front and remain on the cooler side going into next week.

DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHERN DELTA FAVOR MATURING CROPS

Conditions have been relatively dry in the Northern Delta while a stalled front has led to showers along the Gulf Coast. Drier conditions in the north have helped maturing crops. Through this weekend, rainfall will remain confined to Gulf Coast before a cold front could provide showers farther north next week.

WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST NEXT WEEK

Temperatures have cooled off this week, but showers have been limited. Drier conditions are favorable for winter wheat harvest. A late-week system will provide scattered showers to northern areas of the region, but most of the main growing areas will only see isolated showers at best. Through the upcoming weekend and early next week, warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions will return. Filling spring wheat may receive more stress.

ACTIVE PATTERN FAVORS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered rain showers have been impacting the Southern Prairies earlier this week but it's coming too late for the maturing crops in the area. By this weekend, scattered showers are forecast to spread into the Northern Prairies, and the rain will again be too late for damaged crops. As the rain spreads north, it could help suppress some wildfires in forested regions. The pattern could remain active next week with multiple systems moving through.

FROST RISKS IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL LATE THIS WEEK OR WEEKEND

A cold front is expected to move through southern areas Thursday and Friday. The rain will likely disrupt what's left of the corn harvest but be beneficial to winter wheat that will start heading. By the upcoming weekend and early next week, a drier stretch could develop. Cooler temperatures will also build across the southern and central areas later this week, with a slight risk for some spotty frost in southern Brazil.

RAIN FAVORING THE WESTERN BLACK SEA

Hotter and drier conditions across the east especially have been stressful for filling corn. Fronts have largely been weakening as they get into southwest Russia while Ukraine has been seeing the bulk of the rain earlier this week. Dryness and drought continue to be issues for much of the region and showers will be limited going into next week in southwest Russia with rain favoring Ukraine.

VEGETATIVE WHEAT BENEFITING FROM RAINS IN AUSTRALIA

Late this week, a front will come crashing into Western Australia with scattered showers in the east as well. Scattered showers will continue to build soil moisture and reduce the risk of drought. Strong fronts will continue to move through Western Australia into mid-August with isolated showers favoring the East Coast. Vegetative winter wheat and canola are benefiting from the consistent rainfall.

WETTER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH CHINA PLAIN LATE THIS WEEK

Central China, and the North China Plain in particular, has had more issues with heat and dryness than other areas of the country this season. A couple of stronger fronts could produce moderate to heavy rain through the weekend in the North China Plain, favorable for corn and soybeans before rainfall looks more isolated during the first half of next week.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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