DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East with a trough in the Northwest and another in northern Canada. Both troughs will send energy over the ridge through the weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge will slide to the Plains over the weekend into next week and strengthen there while the northern Canada trough sends energy down the ridge and into the Eastern U.S. for next week. The ridge should be a stout feature and may last well into August.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar, but have some notable differences in where and how much precipitation they produce. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move into the Northern Plains this weekend, with scattered showers moving through the Midwest early next week. That should produce a stronger front that pushes through most of the eastern U.S. next week.

Temperatures would be hot ahead of that front but drop drastically behind it.

The cooler temperatures may not make it down to the Gulf, but most areas would find relief from the heat.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...108 AT STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA AND DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW TUE...34 AT BRYCE CANYON, UT, MOUNT WASHINGTON, NH, AND SARANAC LAKE, NY

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...COLORADO SPRINGS, CO 1.69 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East with a trough in the Northwest and another in northern Canada. Both troughs will send energy over the ridge through the weekend. The ridge will slide to the Plains over the weekend into next week and strengthen there while the northern Canada trough sends energy down the ridge and into the Eastern U.S. for next week. The ridge should be a stout feature and may last well into August.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar, but have some notable differences in where and how much precipitation they produce. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move into the Northern Plains this weekend, with scattered showers moving through the Midwest early next week. That should produce a stronger front that pushes through most of the eastern U.S. next week.

Temperatures would be hot ahead of that front but drop drastically behind it.

The cooler temperatures may not make it down to the Gulf, but most areas would find relief from the heat.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms have been and continue to move through the region for the rest of this week and probably next week as well. A ridge to the south may increase with time and may force the rainfall to push farther north and east and temperatures to increase. But for now, good growing conditions are expected going into early August.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Disturbances should move through the north while the south gets largely hot and dry going into next week. A front may be strong enough to bring in some milder air and showers later next week, though that is uncertain. A ridge in the region may deflect the effects of that front farther to the east, which would be more harmful.

Flash drought will also be possible across the south should showers be absent.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front continues to slowly move through the region this week, with multiple disturbances bringing showers and thunderstorms, especially to the northwest. Temperatures south of the front are very hot and could cause stress to the areas that are a bit drier. The front will likely stall in the east this weekend with showers continuing there and helping to relieve some of the heat stress. Another system is likely to bring more showers through next week and bring through a round of much milder air that would be the end of the heatwave.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Isolated showers will remain possible through next week. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be below-normal, but the continued showers may bring enough timely rainfall as more of the crops get through reproductive stages and concentrate on filling. Temperatures will continue to be stressfully hot if rain is too sporadic and light. Another small disturbance moving westward through the Gulf of America this week could become tropical, which could increase the rainfall across the south.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): Hot and dry weather has increased drought conditions over much of the region. Though temperatures are not extremely hot this week, we should see them increasing next week. Some small disturbances have brought some showers through the region this week, and more isolated showers will be possible through the weekend, but that will not be of much help. It continues to be favorable for the winter wheat harvest, but not for heading spring wheat or other specialty crops, which will continually be stressed for the remainder of their life cycles.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): The pattern is very active and almost daily showers and thunderstorms are forecast through next week. That may be too late for some areas, but very helpful for others as spring wheat and canola continue into their reproductive stages. Drier areas in Manitoba really need the rain, but some of Alberta and Saskatchewan are in really good shape right now.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front will move through with limited showers Wednesday and Thursday, but would get a boost from another moving through on Friday through the weekend. Systems may start to be more frequent, which would be helpful for building soil moisture for winter wheat, but could disrupt the remaining safrinha harvest.

ARGENTINA (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front is bringing some limited showers to northern areas on Wednesday, but another could bring more Friday and Saturday.

Fronts may start to be more frequent going into August, which could benefit vegetative winter wheat, but disrupt the remaining corn harvest.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers will continue across central and eastern Europe into next week and even western areas will see some occasional showers, too. The rainfall would be beneficial for developing summer crops, but not winter wheat harvest. Temperatures are also trending milder going into the weekend, which will relieve some of the heat stress.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Isolated showers continue across the north and far west for the rest of this week and shift mainly to the far west for next week, largely favorable for the wheat harvest in the south, but not developing corn, which needs rain. Temperatures continue to be above normal, which is also causing stress.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system brought areas of moderate to heavy rainfall earlier this week. Another system will move through the country over the next few days and produce more areas of widespread rainfall. We could see another system producing widespread rainfall this weekend into early next week as well. All the rain should help reduce the drought for much of the country's winter wheat and canola areas. Crops are still vegetative and the rain would be very helpful before they get into their reproductive stages next month.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Some areas of heavy rain fell on parts of the North China Plain over the weekend and earlier this week, helping with the drought situation. This part of the region is forecast to turn drier again though, which is still concerning as corn and soybeans go into their reproductive stages. Systems will focus rainfall over southern China and also the northeast, an area that is in mostly good condition for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers north and west. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday, mostly north and west.

Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers north Monday-Friday.

Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Wednesday, near to below normal north and above normal south Thursday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated showers far south Sunday.

Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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